ScoreProb
K3 League South Korea Round 26 2026

Changwon City vs Gangneung City

Changwon City Home · Elo 1,510
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gangneung City Away · Elo 1,460
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Changwon City win
Changwon City winPick
51.2%
Draw
24.1%
Gangneung City win
24.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.6%
Under 2.552.4%

How much we know

Changwon City history50 matches
Gangneung City history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Changwon City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Changwon City are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,460. On rating alone Changwon City would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.16 goals a game over 50 matches for Changwon City, against 1.22 over 51 for Gangneung City.

  • Changwon City concede fewer

    Changwon City concede 1.00 a game, Gangneung City 1.51.

  • Gangneung City games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Changwon City matches, against 53% for Gangneung City. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Changwon City
Gangneung City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.2
ELO
1460.0
50
ELO · Matches
51
1510.2
Current Team ELO
1460.0
1460.0
Current Opponent ELO
1510.2
50.25
Current ELO Difference
-50.25
0.57
Expected score
0.43
50
History Matches
51
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.04
51.17
Overperformance
47.40
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.56
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
51
1.46
PPG
1.22
38.0%
Win rate
33.3%
32.0%
Draw rate
21.6%
30.0%
Loss rate
45.1%
62.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
38.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
14.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.5%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
25
1.59
PPG
0.84
40.7%
Win rate
24.0%
37.0%
Draw rate
12.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
64.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
14.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
27
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.22
66.0%
Scoring rate
78.4%
48.0%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.04
74.1%
Scoring rate
80.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
68.0%
1.16
Goals for per game
0.89
68.4%
Scoring rate
63.2%
52.6%
BTTS rate
42.1%
50
History Matches
51
1.16
Goals Mean
1.22
1.08
Goals Std
0.91
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.8%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.51
66.0%
Conceding rate
80.4%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.80
66.7%
Conceding rate
88.0%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.42
73.7%
Conceding rate
68.4%
50
History Matches
51
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.02
Conceded Std
1.16
24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.1%
4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
51
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.30
Goal Difference Std
1.46
0.47
Stability score
3.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
50
16
Lead Matches
15
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.78
11
Trailing Matches
14
18.2%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
27
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
1.37
PPG
1.21
31.6%
Win rate
31.6%
42.1%
Draw rate
26.3%
26.3%
Loss rate
42.1%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
26.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
19
Current Competition Matches
19
1.37
Current Competition PPG
1.21
0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.53
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.89
85.67
Portability Score
55.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO50.25
PPG0.24
GF-0.06
GA-0.51
PPG0.16
PPG0.75
PPG-0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Failed-to-score rate12.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate21.3%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate0.7%
Scored 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-3.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate3.9%
Trailing Win Rate1.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.58
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.31
Portability PPG Range-0.72
Portability Score29.97
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO50.25
Current Opponent ELO-50.25
Current ELO Difference100.5
Expected score0.14
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Changwon City

D
Ulsan Citizen0–0Changwon City1 Nov · away
Pick: Ulsan Citizen 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gangneung City

W
Gangneung City3–0Yangpyeong31 Oct · home
Pick: Gangneung City 43% · hit
W
Gangneung City2–1Jeonbuk Motors II29 Aug · home
Pick: Gangneung City 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Changwon City and Gangneung City meet in K3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Changwon City win 51.2%, draw 24.1%, Gangneung City win 24.7%. The pick is Changwon City win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.6%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.