ScoreProb
K3 League South Korea Round 26 2026

Yangpyeong vs Dangjin Citizen

Yangpyeong Home · Elo 1,455
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dangjin Citizen Away · Elo 1,515
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yangpyeong win
Yangpyeong winPick
39.3%
Draw
22.5%
Dangjin Citizen win
38.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%

How much we know

Yangpyeong history50 matches
Dangjin Citizen history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Yangpyeong are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dangjin Citizen are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,515 against 1,455. On rating alone Dangjin Citizen would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Dangjin Citizen score more

    1.14 goals a game over 50 matches for Yangpyeong, against 1.68 over 25 for Dangjin Citizen.

  • Defences are close

    Yangpyeong concede 1.32 a game, Dangjin Citizen 1.32.

  • Dangjin Citizen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    42% of Yangpyeong matches, against 64% for Dangjin Citizen. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Yangpyeong
Dangjin Citizen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1454.7
ELO
1515.1
50
ELO · Matches
25
1454.7
Current Team ELO
1515.1
1515.1
Current Opponent ELO
1454.7
-60.42
Current ELO Difference
60.42
0.41
Expected score
0.59
50
History Matches
25
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
46.26
Overperformance
50.63
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
2.40
2.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.90
1.90
Goals for per game
2.10
2.30
Goals against per game
0.90
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.81
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
25
1.24
PPG
1.44
32.0%
Win rate
40.0%
28.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
36.0%
62.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
42.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
15
1.70
PPG
1.47
52.2%
Win rate
40.0%
13.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
34.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
23
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.68
62.0%
Scoring rate
88.0%
44.0%
BTTS rate
72.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.40
78.3%
Scoring rate
86.7%
56.5%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.80
57.9%
Scoring rate
90.0%
52.6%
BTTS rate
80.0%
50
History Matches
25
1.14
Goals Mean
1.68
1.23
Goals Std
1.38
62.0%
Scored 1+ rate
88.0%
32.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.0%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.0%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.32
68.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.33
73.9%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.89
Goals against per game
1.45
78.9%
Conceding rate
90.0%
50
History Matches
25
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.26
Conceded Std
0.93
36.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.0%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.0%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
42.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
25
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.65
1.01
Stability score
1.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
24
12
Lead Matches
9
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.74
12
Trailing Matches
3
41.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
23
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
26
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
20
0.89
PPG
1.40
15.8%
Win rate
40.0%
42.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
42.1%
Loss rate
40.0%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
19
Current Competition Matches
20
0.89
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.35
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.64
Portability PPG Range
0.60
60.94
Portability Score
62.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-60.42
PPG-0.20
GF-0.54
GA0.00
PPG-0.51
PPG0.23
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate26.0%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches25
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.26
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches25
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate16.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches25
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-0.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches26
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate41.7%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches26
First Half Goals For Mean-0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.51
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.93
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.04
Portability Score-1.56
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-60.42
Current Opponent ELO60.42
Current ELO Difference-120.8
Expected score-0.17
History Matches25
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Yangpyeong

L
Gangneung City3–0Yangpyeong31 Oct · away
Pick: Gangneung City 43% · hit
L
Daejeon Korail2–1Yangpyeong29 Aug · away
Pick: Daejeon Korail 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dangjin Citizen

D
Dangjin Citizen0–0Siheung Citizen31 Oct · home
Pick: Siheung Citizen 37% · missed
L
Dangjin Citizen2–3Gyeongju HNP4 Oct · home
Pick: Dangjin Citizen 42% · missed
L
Dangjin Citizen3–4Chuncheon29 Aug · home
Pick: Dangjin Citizen 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Yangpyeong and Dangjin Citizen meet in K3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Yangpyeong win 39.3%, draw 22.5%, Dangjin Citizen win 38.2%. The pick is Yangpyeong win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.