ScoreProb
K3 League South Korea Round 26 2026

Mokpo City vs Siheung Citizen

Mokpo City Home · Elo 1,394
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Siheung Citizen Away · Elo 1,612
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Siheung Citizen win
Mokpo City win
16.2%
Draw
23.4%
Siheung Citizen winPick
60.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.3%
No53.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.5%
Under 2.552.5%

How much we know

Mokpo City history51 matches
Siheung Citizen history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Siheung Citizen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Siheung Citizen are rated 219 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,612 against 1,394. On rating alone Siheung Citizen would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.

  • Siheung Citizen score far more

    0.78 goals a game over 51 matches for Mokpo City, against 1.48 over 52 for Siheung Citizen.

  • Siheung Citizen concede fewer

    Mokpo City concede 1.78 a game, Siheung Citizen 0.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Mokpo City matches, against 46% for Siheung Citizen. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mokpo City
Siheung Citizen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1393.9
ELO
1612.5
51
ELO · Matches
52
1393.9
Current Team ELO
1612.5
1612.5
Current Opponent ELO
1393.9
-218.6
Current ELO Difference
218.6
0.22
Expected score
0.78
51
History Matches
52
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.10
42.73
Overperformance
57.32
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
52
0.71
PPG
2.02
13.7%
Win rate
59.6%
29.4%
Draw rate
23.1%
56.9%
Loss rate
17.3%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.2%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
17.3%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
0.92
PPG
2.26
20.0%
Win rate
70.4%
32.0%
Draw rate
14.8%
48.0%
Loss rate
14.8%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.78
Goals for per game
1.48
58.8%
Scoring rate
84.6%
52.9%
BTTS rate
53.8%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.78
60.0%
Scoring rate
92.6%
52.0%
BTTS rate
59.3%
0.79
Goals for per game
1.37
63.2%
Scoring rate
89.5%
63.2%
BTTS rate
57.9%
51
History Matches
52
0.78
Goals Mean
1.48
0.82
Goals Std
1.01
58.8%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
13.7%
Scored 2+ rate
44.2%
5.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
0.90
84.3%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.48
Goals against per game
0.96
84.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.74
Goals against per game
0.79
84.2%
Conceding rate
68.4%
51
History Matches
52
1.78
Conceded Mean
0.90
1.27
Conceded Std
0.79
54.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
27.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.9%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
15.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
15.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
52
0.87
Result entropy
0.87
1.43
Goal Difference Std
1.29
13.21
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
52
3
Lead Matches
21
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.84
19
Trailing Matches
12
10.5%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.66
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
0.79
PPG
2.26
10.5%
Win rate
68.4%
47.4%
Draw rate
21.1%
42.1%
Loss rate
10.5%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
5.3%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.88
19
Current Competition Matches
19
0.79
Current Competition PPG
2.26
-0.95
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.58
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.13
Portability PPG Range
0.93
88.16
Portability Score
55.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-218.6
PPG-1.31
GF-0.70
GA0.88
PPG-1.47
PPG-1.34
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate25.8%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate32.6%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.26
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.88
Conceded Std0.48
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate31.8%
Conceded 3+ rate25.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.89
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-0.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate-0.48
Lead Points Retention-0.29
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.56
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.62
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.47
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.53
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.80
Portability Score32.34
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.27
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Current Team ELO-218.6
Current Opponent ELO218.6
Current ELO Difference-437.2
Expected score-0.56
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance-14.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mokpo City

L
Mokpo City1–3Daejeon Korail1 Nov · home
Pick: Daejeon Korail 55% · hit
W
Mokpo City3–1Busan Transportation4 Oct · home
Pick: Busan Transportation 61% · missed
W
Mokpo City1–0Yeoju Sejong30 Aug · home
Pick: Yeoju Sejong 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Siheung Citizen

D
Dangjin Citizen0–0Siheung Citizen31 Oct · away
Pick: Siheung Citizen 37% · missed
W
Siheung Citizen3–2Pocheon30 Aug · home
Pick: Siheung Citizen 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mokpo City and Siheung Citizen meet in K3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mokpo City win 16.2%, draw 23.4%, Siheung Citizen win 60.4%. The pick is Siheung Citizen win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.5%. Both teams to score: 46.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.