Gyeongju HNP vs Chuncheon
Match result probability Model pick: Gyeongju HNP win
Gyeongju HNP winPick
47.2%
Draw
27.5%
Chuncheon win
25.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.6%
No45.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%
How much we know
Gyeongju HNP history51 matches
Chuncheon history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Gyeongju HNP
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 04:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Gyeongju HNP are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Gyeongju HNP are rated 95 Elo points higher
Elo 1,518 against 1,423. On rating alone Gyeongju HNP would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.33 goals a game over 51 matches for Gyeongju HNP, against 1.28 over 50 for Chuncheon.
-
Gyeongju HNP concede fewer
Gyeongju HNP concede 1.24 a game, Chuncheon 1.50.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
49% of Gyeongju HNP matches, against 54% for Chuncheon. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chuncheon@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1518.2
ELO
1422.9
51
ELO · Matches
50
1518.2
Current Team ELO
1422.9
1422.9
Current Opponent ELO
1518.2
95.30
Current ELO Difference
-95.30
0.63
Expected score
0.37
51
History Matches
50
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.08
50.83
Overperformance
44.55
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
2.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
50
1.45
PPG
1.06
37.3%
Win rate
30.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
16.0%
29.4%
Loss rate
54.0%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
25
1.63
PPG
0.96
41.7%
Win rate
28.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
12.0%
20.8%
Loss rate
60.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
56.0%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.28
70.6%
Scoring rate
64.0%
49.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.16
75.0%
Scoring rate
64.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.68
89.5%
Scoring rate
68.4%
63.2%
BTTS rate
57.9%
51
History Matches
50
1.33
Goals Mean
1.28
1.18
Goals Std
1.39
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
64.0%
39.2%
Scored 2+ rate
32.0%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.50
64.7%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.52
58.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.63
68.4%
Conceding rate
84.2%
51
History Matches
50
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.18
Conceded Std
1.17
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.0%
17.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
50
1.00
Result entropy
0.90
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.51
0.42
Stability score
10.15
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
49
19
Lead Matches
12
57.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.81
12
Trailing Matches
17
16.7%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.83
Rest days
75.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals 170
19
Matches
19
1.21
PPG
1.05
26.3%
Win rate
26.3%
42.1%
Draw rate
26.3%
31.6%
Loss rate
47.4%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
19
Current Competition Matches
19
1.21
Current Competition PPG
1.05
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.05
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.01
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.02
71.60
Portability Score
98.15
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO95.30
PPG0.39
GF0.05
GA-0.26
PPG0.16
PPG0.67
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate21.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate6.6%
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.55
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.60
History Matches1
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-9.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate4.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.05
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.38
Portability Score-26.55
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO95.30
Current Opponent ELO-95.30
Current ELO Difference190.6
Expected score0.27
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Gyeongju HNP
D
Yeoju Sejong3–3Gyeongju HNP31 Oct · away
Pick: Yeoju Sejong 39% · missed W
Dangjin Citizen2–3Gyeongju HNP4 Oct · away
Pick: Dangjin Citizen 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Chuncheon
W
Chuncheon1–0Busan Transportation31 Oct · home
Pick: Busan Transportation 49% · missed W
Dangjin Citizen3–4Chuncheon29 Aug · away
Pick: Dangjin Citizen 49% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Gyeongju HNP and Chuncheon meet in K3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Gyeongju Civic Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gyeongju HNP win 47.2%, draw 27.5%, Chuncheon win 25.2%. The pick is Gyeongju HNP win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 54.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.