ScoreProb
K3 League South Korea Round 26 2026

Busan Transportation vs Jeonbuk Motors II

Busan Transportation Home · Elo 1,562
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Jeonbuk Motors II Away · Elo 1,360
Busan Gudeok Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Busan Transportation win
Busan Transportation winPick
78.3%
Draw
13.8%
Jeonbuk Motors II win
7.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.4%
Under 2.534.6%

How much we know

Busan Transportation history53 matches
Jeonbuk Motors II history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (78.3%). Picks in that band won 76.3% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 587 matches.

Why Busan Transportation are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Busan Transportation are rated 202 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,360. On rating alone Busan Transportation would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • Busan Transportation score more

    1.47 goals a game over 53 matches for Busan Transportation, against 1.00 over 48 for Jeonbuk Motors II.

  • Busan Transportation concede fewer

    Busan Transportation concede 1.11 a game, Jeonbuk Motors II 1.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Busan Transportation matches, against 58% for Jeonbuk Motors II. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Busan Transportation
Jeonbuk Motors II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1561.6
ELO
1360.0
53
ELO · Matches
48
1561.6
Current Team ELO
1360.0
1360.0
Current Opponent ELO
1561.6
201.7
Current ELO Difference
-201.7
0.76
Expected score
0.24
53
History Matches
48
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.14
55.28
Overperformance
40.00
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.40
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.30
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.80
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
48
1.72
PPG
0.63
50.9%
Win rate
12.5%
18.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
30.2%
Loss rate
62.5%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
54.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
17.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
24
1.68
PPG
0.29
48.4%
Win rate
0.0%
22.6%
Draw rate
29.2%
29.0%
Loss rate
70.8%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
9.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
31
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.00
77.4%
Scoring rate
70.8%
56.6%
BTTS rate
64.6%
1.45
Goals for per game
0.75
77.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
61.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.00
78.9%
Scoring rate
70.0%
52.6%
BTTS rate
65.0%
53
History Matches
48
1.47
Goals Mean
1.00
1.13
Goals Std
0.82
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
47.2%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.2%
1.45
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.98
71.7%
Conceding rate
91.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.29
74.2%
Conceding rate
95.8%
0.95
Goals against per game
2.20
57.9%
Conceding rate
90.0%
53
History Matches
48
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.98
1.02
Conceded Std
1.33
26.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.3%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.1%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
4.2%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
48
0.93
Result entropy
0.82
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.53
7.17
Stability score
18.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
48
18
Lead Matches
9
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.37
16
Trailing Matches
25
43.8%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.62
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
20
1.89
PPG
0.50
52.6%
Win rate
5.0%
31.6%
Draw rate
35.0%
15.8%
Loss rate
60.0%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
19
Current Competition Matches
20
1.89
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.84
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.20
4
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.21
74.44
Portability Score
82.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO201.7
PPG1.09
GF0.47
GA-0.87
PPG1.39
PPG1.39
PPG1.80
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate6.5%
Scored 2+ rate22.2%
Scored 3+ rate12.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.87
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-1.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.14
History Matches5
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-10.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.87
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate44.4%
Lead Points Retention0.44
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate23.8%
Trailing Win Rate21.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.39
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.04
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-7.91
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.97
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.33
Current Team ELO201.7
Current Opponent ELO-201.7
Current ELO Difference403.3
Expected score0.52
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance15.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Busan Transportation

L
Chuncheon1–0Busan Transportation31 Oct · away
Pick: Busan Transportation 49% · missed
L
Mokpo City3–1Busan Transportation4 Oct · away
Pick: Busan Transportation 61% · missed
L
Ulsan Citizen2–1Busan Transportation30 Aug · away
Pick: Busan Transportation 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Jeonbuk Motors II

D
Jeonbuk Motors II2–2Pocheon1 Nov · home
Pick: Pocheon 74% · missed
L
Gangneung City2–1Jeonbuk Motors II29 Aug · away
Pick: Gangneung City 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Busan Transportation and Jeonbuk Motors II meet in K3 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Busan Gudeok Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Busan Transportation win 78.3%, draw 13.8%, Jeonbuk Motors II win 7.9%. The pick is Busan Transportation win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.4%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.