Dagenham & Redbridge vs Dorking Wanderers
Match result probability Model pick: Dagenham & Redbridge win
Dagenham & Redbridge winPick
37.1%
Draw
28.1%
Dorking Wanderers win
34.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.4%
No44.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%
How much we know
Dagenham & Redbridge history83 matches
Dorking Wanderers history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Dagenham & Redbridge
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Dagenham & Redbridge are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,562 against 1,541. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Dorking Wanderers score more
1.27 goals a game over 83 matches for Dagenham & Redbridge, against 1.80 over 82 for Dorking Wanderers.
-
Defences are close
Dagenham & Redbridge concede 1.35 a game, Dorking Wanderers 1.32.
-
Dorking Wanderers games more often go over 2.5 goals
48% of Dagenham & Redbridge matches, against 57% for Dorking Wanderers. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dorking Wanderers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1561.9
ELO
1541.2
83
ELO · Matches
82
1561.9
Current Team ELO
1541.2
1541.2
Current Opponent ELO
1561.9
20.69
Current ELO Difference
-20.69
0.53
Expected score
0.47
83
History Matches
82
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.23
Overperformance
51.81
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.80
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.70
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals 90
83
Matches
82
1.36
PPG
1.68
36.1%
Win rate
47.6%
27.7%
Draw rate
25.6%
36.1%
Loss rate
26.8%
67.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
48.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.3%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.6%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals 100
42
Matches
41
1.55
PPG
1.24
45.2%
Win rate
29.3%
19.0%
Draw rate
36.6%
35.7%
Loss rate
34.1%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.2%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
29.3%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
42
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.27
Goals for per game
1.80
72.3%
Scoring rate
84.1%
50.6%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.44
81.0%
Scoring rate
80.5%
54.8%
BTTS rate
61.0%
83
History Matches
82
1.27
Goals Mean
1.80
1.19
Goals Std
1.28
72.3%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
33.7%
Scored 2+ rate
59.8%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.2%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
1.32
66.3%
Conceding rate
75.6%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.41
66.7%
Conceding rate
78.0%
83
History Matches
82
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.38
Conceded Std
1.02
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
33.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
27.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
33.7%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
83
History Matches
82
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.55
0.67
Stability score
3.94
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
82
Eligible Matches
82
22
Lead Matches
34
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.83
26
Trailing Matches
22
23.1%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
11.5%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
68
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
10
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.37
2.20
Portability PPG Range
1.06
40.51
Portability Score
57.77
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
83
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO20.69
PPG-0.32
GF-0.54
GA0.03
PPG0.30
PPG1.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.36
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.67
History Matches1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-3.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.40
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range1.14
Portability Score-17.25
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO20.69
Current Opponent ELO-20.69
Current ELO Difference41.37
Expected score0.06
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Dagenham & Redbridge
D
Dagenham & Redbridge2–2Billericay Town7 Nov · home
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 53% · missed D
Maidenhead0–0Dagenham & Redbridge31 Oct · away
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 40% · missed L
Braintree2–1Dagenham & Redbridge27 Oct · away
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 40% · missed W
Dagenham & Redbridge2–0Chesham United24 Oct · home
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 62% · hit L
Farnborough2–0Dagenham & Redbridge17 Oct · away
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 46% · missed Dorking Wanderers
W
Dorking Wanderers3–2Hampton & Richmond3 Nov · home
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 66% · hit W
Dorking Wanderers2–0Weston-super-Mare31 Oct · home
Pick: Weston-super-Mare 40% · missed D
Dorking Wanderers3–3Hemel Hempstead Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 42% · missed W
Slough Town1–3Dorking Wanderers24 Oct · away
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 55% · hit L
Dover3–2Dorking Wanderers17 Oct · away
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 42% · missed About this match
Dagenham & Redbridge and Dorking Wanderers meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Victoria Road, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Dagenham & Redbridge win 37.1%, draw 28.1%, Dorking Wanderers win 34.8%. The pick is Dagenham & Redbridge win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.