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FA Trophy England Round 128 2026

Darlington 1883 vs Bury

Darlington 1883 Home · Elo 1,497
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bury Away · Elo 1,614
Blackwell Meadows, Darlington Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Darlington 1883 win
Darlington 1883 winPick
60.2%
Draw
16.4%
Bury win
23.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%

How much we know

Darlington 1883 history81 matches
Bury history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.2%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Darlington 1883 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bury are rated 117 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,497. On rating alone Bury would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Bury score more

    1.69 goals a game over 81 matches for Darlington 1883, against 1.96 over 47 for Bury.

  • Bury concede fewer

    Darlington 1883 concede 1.63 a game, Bury 1.09.

  • Darlington 1883 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Darlington 1883 matches, against 53% for Bury. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Darlington 1883
Bury@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.8
ELO
1613.7
81
ELO · Matches
47
1496.8
Current Team ELO
1613.7
1613.7
Current Opponent ELO
1496.8
-116.9
Current ELO Difference
116.9
0.34
Expected score
0.66
81
History Matches
47
0.00
Residual Mean
0.11
49.93
Overperformance
57.63
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
2.20
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
81
Matches
47
1.41
PPG
1.98
40.7%
Win rate
59.6%
18.5%
Draw rate
19.1%
40.7%
Loss rate
21.3%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
64.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
45.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
26
1.37
PPG
1.73
39.0%
Win rate
50.0%
19.5%
Draw rate
23.1%
41.5%
Loss rate
26.9%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
63.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
48.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
41
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.69
Goals for per game
1.96
85.2%
Scoring rate
78.7%
67.9%
BTTS rate
44.7%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.62
85.4%
Scoring rate
76.9%
70.7%
BTTS rate
42.3%
81
History Matches
47
1.69
Goals Mean
1.96
1.24
Goals Std
1.77
85.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
46.9%
Scored 2+ rate
55.3%
24.7%
Scored 3+ rate
29.8%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.63
Goals against per game
1.09
81.5%
Conceding rate
59.6%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.27
85.4%
Conceding rate
57.7%
81
History Matches
47
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.28
Conceded Std
1.30
46.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.8%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
1.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
81
History Matches
47
0.95
Result entropy
0.87
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.31
4.98
Stability score
13.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
42
35
Lead Matches
18
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
94.4%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.96
20
Trailing Matches
8
10.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
69
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
8
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.16
1.25
Portability PPG Range
0.42
51.55
Portability Score
75.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
81
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-116.9
PPG-0.57
GF-0.27
GA0.54
PPG-0.36
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches34
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches34
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate6.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches34
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches34
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score-8.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.83
Portability Score-24.08
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches31
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-116.9
Current Opponent ELO116.9
Current ELO Difference-233.7
Expected score-0.32
History Matches34
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Darlington 1883

L
Spalding United3–2Darlington 188331 Oct · away
Pick: Spalding United 48% · hit
L
Morecambe1–0Darlington 188327 Oct · away
Pick: Morecambe 38% · hit
W
Darlington 18833–0Spennymoor Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Darlington 1883 47% · hit
L
AFC Telford United2–1Darlington 188317 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Telford United 48% · hit
W
Radcliffe0–1Darlington 188331 Aug · away
Pick: Darlington 1883 39% · hit

Bury

W
Bamber Bridge0–1Bury7 Nov · away
Pick: Bury 59% · hit
D
Bury2–2Avro3 Nov · home
Pick: Avro 51% · missed
L
Bury1–2Workington31 Oct · home
Pick: Bury 55% · missed
W
Bury5–3Leek Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Bury 42% · hit
W
Bury3–0Prescot Cables24 Oct · home
Pick: Bury 39% · hit

About this match

Darlington 1883 and Bury meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Blackwell Meadows, Darlington. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Darlington 1883 win 60.2%, draw 16.4%, Bury win 23.4%. The pick is Darlington 1883 win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.3%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.