Dartford vs AFC Totton
Match result probability Model pick: Dartford win
Dartford winPick
39.6%
Draw
24.6%
AFC Totton win
35.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.9%
No43.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%
How much we know
Dartford history76 matches
AFC Totton history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Dartford
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Dartford are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Dartford are rated 74 Elo points higher
Elo 1,611 against 1,537. On rating alone Dartford would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Dartford score more
1.76 goals a game over 76 matches for Dartford, against 1.46 over 78 for AFC Totton.
-
Defences are close
Dartford concede 1.30 a game, AFC Totton 1.44.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
61% of Dartford matches, against 53% for AFC Totton. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AFC Totton@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1611.0
ELO
1536.5
76
ELO · Matches
78
1611.0
Current Team ELO
1536.5
1536.5
Current Opponent ELO
1611.0
74.43
Current ELO Difference
-74.43
0.61
Expected score
0.39
76
History Matches
78
0.07
Residual Mean
0.02
55.89
Overperformance
51.91
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.80
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals 90
76
Matches
78
1.72
PPG
1.63
48.7%
Win rate
47.4%
26.3%
Draw rate
20.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
32.1%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals 100
39
Matches
38
1.90
PPG
1.13
56.4%
Win rate
31.6%
20.5%
Draw rate
18.4%
23.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
41.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
39
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.76
Goals for per game
1.46
84.2%
Scoring rate
78.2%
56.6%
BTTS rate
55.1%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.18
84.6%
Scoring rate
68.4%
51.3%
BTTS rate
52.6%
76
History Matches
78
1.76
Goals Mean
1.46
1.28
Goals Std
1.17
84.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
56.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
22.4%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.44
69.7%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.71
64.1%
Conceding rate
78.9%
76
History Matches
78
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.11
Conceded Std
1.38
43.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
76
History Matches
78
0.95
Result entropy
0.95
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.96
4.58
Stability score
5.02
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
75
Eligible Matches
78
28
Lead Matches
26
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
24
45.5%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
87.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
63
Normal Rest History Matches
64
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
9
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.57
57.96
Portability Score
68.03
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
76
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO74.43
PPG0.10
GF0.30
GA-0.13
PPG0.77
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate6.0%
Scored 2+ rate13.0%
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-0.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate20.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-10.08
Rest days-3.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO74.43
Current Opponent ELO-74.43
Current ELO Difference148.9
Expected score0.21
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Dartford
W
Dartford4–1Eastbourne Borough7 Nov · home
Pick: Dartford 46% · hit W
Lewes1–2Dartford3 Nov · away
Pick: Dartford 43% · hit L
Aveley4–3Dartford31 Oct · away
Pick: Aveley 52% · hit W
Dartford3–2Three Bridges24 Oct · home
Pick: Dartford 63% · hit L
Brentwood Town3–0Dartford20 Oct · away
Pick: Dartford 43% · missed AFC Totton
W
Horsham2–3AFC Totton7 Nov · away
Pick: Horsham 49% · missed L
AFC Totton1–3Chelmsford City31 Oct · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit W
AFC Totton1–0Torquay27 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Totton 38% · hit W
Hemel Hempstead Town1–3AFC Totton24 Oct · away
Pick: Hemel Hempstead Town 48% · missed L
Folkestone Invicta2–1AFC Totton17 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 55% · hit About this match
Dartford and AFC Totton meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Dartford win 39.6%, draw 24.6%, AFC Totton win 35.8%. The pick is Dartford win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.