ScoreProb
Segunda División Chile Relegation Group - 11 2026

Deportes Rengo vs Real San Joaquín

Deportes Rengo Home · Elo 1,454
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real San Joaquín Away · Elo 1,436
Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzman Diaz, Rengo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportes Rengo win
Deportes Rengo winPick
40.8%
Draw
27.6%
Real San Joaquín win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%

How much we know

Deportes Rengo history33 matches
Real San Joaquín history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Deportes Rengo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,454 against 1,436. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Real San Joaquín score more

    0.94 goals a game over 33 matches for Deportes Rengo, against 1.08 over 38 for Real San Joaquín.

  • Defences are close

    Deportes Rengo concede 1.55 a game, Real San Joaquín 1.66.

  • Real San Joaquín games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Deportes Rengo matches, against 61% for Real San Joaquín. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportes Rengo
Real San Joaquín@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1454.0
ELO
1435.9
33
ELO · Matches
38
1454.0
Current Team ELO
1435.9
1435.9
Current Opponent ELO
1454.0
18.10
Current ELO Difference
-18.10
0.53
Expected score
0.47
33
History Matches
38
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.08
45.59
Overperformance
44.59
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
0.90
Goals for per game
1.30
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
38
1.06
PPG
0.97
30.3%
Win rate
23.7%
15.2%
Draw rate
26.3%
54.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
19
1.13
PPG
0.89
31.3%
Win rate
15.8%
18.8%
Draw rate
42.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
16
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.94
Goals for per game
1.08
69.7%
Scoring rate
65.8%
51.5%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.05
75.0%
Scoring rate
63.2%
62.5%
BTTS rate
63.2%
0.93
Goals for per game
1.36
64.3%
Scoring rate
64.3%
42.9%
BTTS rate
64.3%
33
History Matches
38
0.94
Goals Mean
1.08
0.85
Goals Std
1.16
69.7%
Scored 1+ rate
65.8%
15.2%
Scored 2+ rate
28.9%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
5.3%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.66
78.8%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.74
87.5%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.43
71.4%
Conceding rate
78.6%
33
History Matches
38
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.35
Conceded Std
1.28
42.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.7%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.7%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
38
0.89
Result entropy
0.95
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.74
10.95
Stability score
5.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
38
8
Lead Matches
9
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.63
14
Trailing Matches
15
7.1%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
11
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.70
21
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
14
Matches
14
1.29
PPG
1.07
35.7%
Win rate
21.4%
21.4%
Draw rate
42.9%
42.9%
Loss rate
35.7%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
14
Current Competition Matches
14
1.29
Current Competition PPG
1.07
-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.07
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.39
Portability PPG Range
0.15
71.89
Portability Score
86.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO18.10
PPG0.09
GF-0.14
GA-0.11
PPG0.21
PPG0.23
PPG1.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate3.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.90
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score5.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate6.9%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.07
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-14.71
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO18.10
Current Opponent ELO-18.10
Current ELO Difference36.20
Expected score0.05
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportes Rengo

L
General Velásquez1–0Deportes Rengo31 Oct · away
Pick: General Velásquez 47% · hit
L
Lota Schwager5–1Deportes Rengo24 Oct · away
Pick: Lota Schwager 40% · hit
W
Real San Joaquín2–5Deportes Rengo31 Aug · away
Pick: Real San Joaquín 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real San Joaquín

L
Real San Joaquín2–5Deportes Rengo31 Aug · home
Pick: Real San Joaquín 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deportes Rengo and Real San Joaquín meet in Segunda División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Guzman Diaz, Rengo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Deportes Rengo win 40.8%, draw 27.6%, Real San Joaquín win 31.6%. The pick is Deportes Rengo win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.