ScoreProb
Segunda División Chile Promotion Group - 11 2026

Linares Unido vs Concón National

Linares Unido Home · Elo 1,574
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Concón National Away · Elo 1,501
Estadio Fiscal de Linares Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Linares Unido win
Linares Unido winPick
48.5%
Draw
26.1%
Concón National win
25.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%

How much we know

Linares Unido history35 matches
Concón National history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Linares Unido are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Linares Unido are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,574 against 1,501. On rating alone Linares Unido would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.51 goals a game over 35 matches for Linares Unido, against 1.56 over 36 for Concón National.

  • Linares Unido concede fewer

    Linares Unido concede 0.97 a game, Concón National 1.28.

  • Concón National games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Linares Unido matches, against 50% for Concón National. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Linares Unido
Concón National@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1573.7
ELO
1500.6
35
ELO · Matches
36
1573.7
Current Team ELO
1500.6
1500.6
Current Opponent ELO
1573.7
73.12
Current ELO Difference
-73.12
0.60
Expected score
0.40
35
History Matches
36
0.11
Residual Mean
0.00
56.71
Overperformance
50.07
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.50
0.70
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
36
1.91
PPG
1.42
57.1%
Win rate
41.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
22.9%
Loss rate
41.7%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
37.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
18
1.94
PPG
1.78
61.1%
Win rate
55.6%
11.1%
Draw rate
11.1%
27.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
18
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.56
82.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.7%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.89
83.3%
Scoring rate
77.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.29
80.0%
Scoring rate
78.6%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
35
History Matches
36
1.51
Goals Mean
1.56
1.27
Goals Std
1.48
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
37.1%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
27.8%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.97
Goals against per game
1.28
60.0%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.28
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
35
History Matches
36
0.97
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.03
Conceded Std
1.12
25.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.9%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
36
0.89
Result entropy
0.94
1.48
Goal Difference Std
2.06
10.89
Stability score
6.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
34
11
Lead Matches
13
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.87
8
Trailing Matches
12
37.5%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.08
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
11
Normal Rest History Matches
9
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
23
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
14
1.73
PPG
1.50
53.3%
Win rate
42.9%
13.3%
Draw rate
21.4%
33.3%
Loss rate
35.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
15
Current Competition Matches
14
1.73
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.29
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.32
Portability PPG Range
0.14
75.95
Portability Score
88.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO73.12
PPG0.50
GF-0.04
GA-0.31
PPG0.23
PPG0.17
PPG1.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate16.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.58
Stability score4.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate15.4%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.11
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-12.05
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO73.12
Current Opponent ELO-73.12
Current ELO Difference146.2
Expected score0.21
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance6.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Linares Unido

L
Provincial Osorno1–0Linares Unido24 Oct · away
Pick: Provincial Osorno 43% · hit
L
Municipal Salamanca2–0Linares Unido4 Oct · away
Pick: Municipal Salamanca 38% · hit
L
Concón National3–1Linares Unido29 Aug · away
Pick: Concón National 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Concón National

D
Concón National0–0Municipal Salamanca31 Oct · home
Pick: Concón National 38% · missed
L
Trasandino3–1Concón National24 Oct · away
Pick: Trasandino 41% · hit
W
Concón National3–1Linares Unido29 Aug · home
Pick: Concón National 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Linares Unido and Concón National meet in Segunda División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Fiscal de Linares. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Linares Unido win 48.5%, draw 26.1%, Concón National win 25.5%. The pick is Linares Unido win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.3%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.