Deportivo Riestra Res. vs Quilmes 2
What we said before kickoff Result: Quilmes 2 win
Deportivo Riestra Res. winPick
51.7%
Draw
29.0%
Quilmes 2 win Result
19.3%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickDeportivo Riestra Res. win · 51.7%
What happenedQuilmes 2 win · we gave it 19.3%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 61.4%
What happenedOver · 6 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 57.7%
What happenedYes · 2–4
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Quilmes 2 win. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
19%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 5.2
on average A pick at 52% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalM. Smarra
24' 28'
Own goal
45+2'
GoalResquin
50'
GoalMunoz
80'
GoalCiari
GoalF. Ventresca
83' Both teams to score
Yes42.3%
No57.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.538.6%
Under 2.561.4%
How much we know
Deportivo Riestra Res. history51 matches
Quilmes 2 history23 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full time: 2–4None of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Deportivo Riestra Res. are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Quilmes 2 are rated 62 Elo points higher
Elo 1,530 against 1,468. On rating alone Quilmes 2 would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.12 goals a game over 51 matches for Deportivo Riestra Res., against 1.04 over 23 for Quilmes 2.
-
Quilmes 2 concede fewer
Deportivo Riestra Res. concede 1.20 a game, Quilmes 2 0.65.
-
Deportivo Riestra Res. games more often go over 2.5 goals
47% of Deportivo Riestra Res. matches, against 13% for Quilmes 2. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Quilmes 2@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1467.6
ELO
1529.8
51
ELO · Matches
23
1467.6
Current Team ELO
1529.8
1529.8
Current Opponent ELO
1467.6
-62.18
Current ELO Difference
62.18
0.41
Expected score
0.59
51
History Matches
23
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.07
48.22
Overperformance
53.49
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
0.90
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
23
1.18
PPG
1.78
31.4%
Win rate
52.2%
23.5%
Draw rate
21.7%
45.1%
Loss rate
26.1%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
47.8%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
13.0%
13.7%
Over 3.5 rate
4.3%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
11
1.74
PPG
1.27
48.1%
Win rate
36.4%
29.6%
Draw rate
18.2%
22.2%
Loss rate
45.5%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
45.5%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
14.8%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
27
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.12
Goals for per game
1.04
72.5%
Scoring rate
65.2%
51.0%
BTTS rate
26.1%
1.48
Goals for per game
0.64
88.9%
Scoring rate
54.5%
55.6%
BTTS rate
18.2%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.04
72.7%
Scoring rate
65.2%
36.4%
BTTS rate
26.1%
51
History Matches
23
1.12
Goals Mean
1.04
0.98
Goals Std
1.27
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
65.2%
25.5%
Scored 2+ rate
21.7%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
4.3%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
0.64
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.20
Goals against per game
0.65
74.5%
Conceding rate
52.2%
0.85
Goals against per game
0.82
63.0%
Conceding rate
63.6%
0.95
Goals against per game
0.65
59.1%
Conceding rate
52.2%
51
History Matches
23
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.65
0.91
Conceded Std
0.70
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
13.0%
7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
0.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
47.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
23
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.52
3.22
Stability score
7.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
23
13
Lead Matches
7
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
1.00
16
Trailing Matches
6
25.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
23
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
22
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals 170
22
Matches
23
1.45
PPG
1.78
40.9%
Win rate
52.2%
22.7%
Draw rate
21.7%
36.4%
Loss rate
26.1%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
47.8%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
13.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
4.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
22
Current Competition Matches
23
1.45
Current Competition PPG
1.78
0.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.39
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.24
Portability PPG Std
—
0.49
Portability PPG Range
—
67.16
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
23
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-62.18
PPG-0.61
GF0.07
GA0.54
PPG-0.33
PPG0.47
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches28
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches28
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate7.3%
Scored 2+ rate3.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.00
History Matches28
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate24.2%
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches28
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-3.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.94
Eligible Matches28
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.31
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches28
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.02
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO-62.18
Current Opponent ELO62.18
Current ELO Difference-124.4
Expected score-0.18
History Matches28
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-5.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Deportivo Riestra Res.
D
Estudiantes La Plata Res1–1Deportivo Riestra Res.28 Oct · away
Pick: Estudiantes La Plata Res 51% · missed W
Deportivo Riestra Res.3–1Central Córdoba SdE Res.22 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Riestra Res. 52% · hit L
San Martín San Juan Res.2–0Deportivo Riestra Res.14 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Riestra Res. 51% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Quilmes 2
L
Quilmes 20–2Belgrano Córdoba Res.29 Oct · home
Pick: Quilmes 2 48% · missed L
Lanús Res.4–1Quilmes 221 Oct · away
Pick: Lanús Res. 58% · hit D
Quilmes 21–1Newell's Old Boys Res.13 Oct · home
Pick: Quilmes 2 38% · missed D
Defensa y Justicia Res.1–1Quilmes 26 Oct · away
Pick: Defensa y Justicia Res. 53% · missed L
Quilmes 21–2Independiente Res.26 Aug · home
Pick: Quilmes 2 36% · missed Match report
Deportivo Riestra Res. and Quilmes 2 finished 2–4 in Reserve League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Deportivo Riestra Res. win 51.7%, draw 29.0%, Quilmes 2 win 19.3%. None of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.