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Druha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Dnister Zalishchyky vs Vilkhivtsi

Dnister Zalishchyky Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vilkhivtsi Away · Elo 1,492
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dnister Zalishchyky win
Dnister Zalishchyky winPick
40.8%
Draw
23.1%
Vilkhivtsi win
36.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.1%
No37.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%

How much we know

Dnister Zalishchyky history4 matches
Vilkhivtsi history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Dnister Zalishchyky are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,489 against 1,492. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 4 matches for Dnister Zalishchyky, against 1.60 over 40 for Vilkhivtsi.

  • Vilkhivtsi concede fewer

    Dnister Zalishchyky concede 2.00 a game, Vilkhivtsi 1.60.

  • Dnister Zalishchyky games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Dnister Zalishchyky matches, against 60% for Vilkhivtsi. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dnister Zalishchyky
Vilkhivtsi@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.1
ELO
1492.2
4
ELO · Matches
40
1489.1
Current Team ELO
1492.2
1492.2
Current Opponent ELO
1489.1
-3.18
Current ELO Difference
3.18
0.50
Expected score
0.50
4
History Matches
40
-0.13
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.75
Overperformance
49.43
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
25.0%
Win rate
40.0%
4
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
1.50
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.10
25.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.78
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.39
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
40
1.00
PPG
1.28
25.0%
Win rate
35.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
42.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
20
1.50
PPG
1.15
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
45.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
2
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
65.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
4
History Matches
40
1.50
Goals Mean
1.60
1.50
Goals Std
1.45
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.5%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
82.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
100.0%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
4
History Matches
40
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.00
Conceded Std
1.20
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
40
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.80
Goal Difference Std
2.10
5.36
Stability score
2.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
35
0
Lead Matches
14
—
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.86
2
Trailing Matches
13
50.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
1.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.96
Rest days
82.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
2
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
1
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.47
—
Portability PPG Range
1.00
—
Portability Score
51.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-3.18
PPG-0.28
GF-0.10
GA0.40
PPG1.00
PPG0.35
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-36
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate25.0%
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate25.0%
History Matches-36
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate7.5%
Scored 3+ rate25.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-36
Conceded Mean0.40
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate25.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-36
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score2.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-14
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate26.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.35
Current Team ELO-3.18
Current Opponent ELO3.18
Current ELO Difference-6.35
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-36
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-1.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dnister Zalishchyky

L
Podillya Khmelnytskyi4–2Dnister Zalishchyky7 Nov · away
Pick: Podillya Khmelnytskyi 48% · hit
L
Dnister Zalishchyky0–1Ruh Lviv1 Nov · home
Pick: Ruh Lviv 39% · hit
W
Skala 1911 Stryi0–2Dnister Zalishchyky24 Oct · away
Pick: Skala 1911 Stryi 48% · missed
D
Dnister Zalishchyky1–1Nyva Ternopil II17 Oct · home
Pick: Dnister Zalishchyky 50% · missed
W
Ruh Lviv1–2Dnister Zalishchyky29 Aug · away
Pick: Ruh Lviv 64% · missed

Vilkhivtsi

D
Vilkhivtsi1–1Nyva Vinnytsya25 Oct · home
Pick: Nyva Vinnytsya 44% · missed
D
Bratslav Vinnytsia0–0Vilkhivtsi18 Oct · away
Pick: Bratslav Vinnytsia 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dnister Zalishchyky and Vilkhivtsi meet in Druha Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Dnister Zalishchyky win 40.8%, draw 23.1%, Vilkhivtsi win 36.1%. The pick is Dnister Zalishchyky win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.0%. Both teams to score: 62.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.