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Druha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Skala 1911 Stryi vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi

Skala 1911 Stryi Home · Elo 1,493
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Podillya Khmelnytskyi Away · Elo 1,421
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Podillya Khmelnytskyi win
Skala 1911 Stryi win
34.9%
Draw
24.2%
Podillya Khmelnytskyi winPick
41.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.2%
Under 2.533.8%

How much we know

Skala 1911 Stryi history39 matches
Podillya Khmelnytskyi history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Podillya Khmelnytskyi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Skala 1911 Stryi are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,493 against 1,421. On rating alone Skala 1911 Stryi would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Skala 1911 Stryi score far more

    2.10 goals a game over 39 matches for Skala 1911 Stryi, against 0.91 over 46 for Podillya Khmelnytskyi.

  • Podillya Khmelnytskyi concede fewer

    Skala 1911 Stryi concede 1.67 a game, Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1.37.

  • Skala 1911 Stryi games more often go over 2.5 goals

    77% of Skala 1911 Stryi matches, against 39% for Podillya Khmelnytskyi. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Skala 1911 Stryi
Podillya Khmelnytskyi@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.8
ELO
1420.5
39
ELO · Matches
46
1492.8
Current Team ELO
1420.5
1420.5
Current Opponent ELO
1492.8
72.31
Current ELO Difference
-72.31
0.60
Expected score
0.40
39
History Matches
46
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.09
49.77
Overperformance
44.01
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.70
2.10
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
46
1.51
PPG
1.02
43.6%
Win rate
23.9%
20.5%
Draw rate
30.4%
35.9%
Loss rate
45.7%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
51.3%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
2.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
23
1.33
PPG
1.22
38.1%
Win rate
30.4%
19.0%
Draw rate
30.4%
42.9%
Loss rate
39.1%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
81.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
2.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
21
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.10
Goals for per game
0.91
79.5%
Scoring rate
67.4%
64.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.05
Goals for per game
0.96
81.0%
Scoring rate
69.6%
71.4%
BTTS rate
43.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
46
2.10
Goals Mean
0.91
1.89
Goals Std
0.80
79.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.4%
48.7%
Scored 2+ rate
19.6%
35.9%
Scored 3+ rate
4.3%
2.05
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.37
79.5%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.90
Goals against per game
1.26
85.7%
Conceding rate
65.2%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
46
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.38
Conceded Std
1.24
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.1%
25.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.4%
1.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
46
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
2.80
Goal Difference Std
1.54
4.00
Stability score
3.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
46
13
Lead Matches
10
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.83
11
Trailing Matches
13
18.2%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
1.03
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.37
1.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.02
Rest days
84.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.93
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.93
54.90
Portability Score
51.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO72.31
PPG0.49
GF1.19
GA0.30
PPG-1.00
PPG0.12
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-7
Goals Mean1.19
Goals Std1.09
Scored 1+ rate12.1%
Scored 2+ rate29.2%
Scored 3+ rate31.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.96
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std1.26
Stability score0.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.77
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate12.3%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate10.5%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score3.02
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.81
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO72.31
Current Opponent ELO-72.31
Current ELO Difference144.6
Expected score0.21
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Skala 1911 Stryi

L
Skala 1911 Stryi2–5Nyva Ternopil II31 Oct · home
Pick: Skala 1911 Stryi 43% · missed
L
Skala 1911 Stryi0–2Dnister Zalishchyky24 Oct · home
Pick: Skala 1911 Stryi 48% · missed
W
Dinaz Vyshhorod1–4Skala 1911 Stryi17 Oct · away
Pick: Skala 1911 Stryi 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

W
Podillya Khmelnytskyi4–2Dnister Zalishchyky7 Nov · home
Pick: Podillya Khmelnytskyi 48% · hit
W
Dinaz Vyshhorod0–3Podillya Khmelnytskyi1 Nov · away
Pick: Podillya Khmelnytskyi 48% · hit
L
Nyva Vinnytsya2–1Podillya Khmelnytskyi17 Oct · away
Pick: Nyva Vinnytsya 45% · hit
D
Podillya Khmelnytskyi1–1Dinaz Vyshhorod29 Aug · home
Pick: Podillya Khmelnytskyi 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Skala 1911 Stryi and Podillya Khmelnytskyi meet in Druha Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Skala 1911 Stryi win 34.9%, draw 24.2%, Podillya Khmelnytskyi win 41.0%. The pick is Podillya Khmelnytskyi win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.2%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.