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Druha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Rebel vs Oleksandria II

Rebel Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oleksandria II Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oleksandria II win
Rebel win
27.1%
Draw
34.0%
Oleksandria II winPick
38.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.2%
Under 2.557.8%

How much we know

Rebel history34 matches
Oleksandria II history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Oleksandria II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,499 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.21 goals a game over 34 matches for Rebel, against 1.15 over 39 for Oleksandria II.

  • Oleksandria II concede fewer

    Rebel concede 1.18 a game, Oleksandria II 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of Rebel matches, against 36% for Oleksandria II. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rebel
Oleksandria II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.0
ELO
1496.3
34
ELO · Matches
39
1499.0
Current Team ELO
1496.3
1496.3
Current Opponent ELO
1499.0
2.65
Current ELO Difference
-2.65
0.50
Expected score
0.50
34
History Matches
39
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.45
Overperformance
49.49
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
3.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
39
1.50
PPG
1.36
44.1%
Win rate
33.3%
17.6%
Draw rate
35.9%
38.2%
Loss rate
30.8%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.9%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
12.8%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
20
1.31
PPG
1.55
37.5%
Win rate
35.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
50.0%
43.8%
Loss rate
15.0%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
16
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.15
73.5%
Scoring rate
82.1%
41.2%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.45
68.8%
Scoring rate
95.0%
31.3%
BTTS rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
34
History Matches
39
1.21
Goals Mean
1.15
1.02
Goals Std
0.98
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
20.5%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
5.1%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.05
61.8%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.05
56.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
0.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
34
History Matches
39
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.29
Conceded Std
0.81
32.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.6%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.1%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
39
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.17
5.82
Stability score
0.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
38
11
Lead Matches
14
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.76
8
Trailing Matches
6
12.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.04
Rest days
90.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
14
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.66
Portability PPG Range
1.00
60.42
Portability Score
53.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO2.65
PPG0.14
GF0.05
GA0.13
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.24
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate8.5%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Failed-to-score rate26.3%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate11.8%
Scored 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.48
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Conceded 2+ rate6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score5.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate10.4%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.34
Portability Score6.77
Rest days-5.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Current Team ELO2.65
Current Opponent ELO-2.65
Current ELO Difference5.30
Expected score0.01
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rebel

W
Rebel4–0Penuel7 Nov · home
Pick: Rebel 44% · hit
L
Metalurh Zaporizhya1–0Rebel30 Oct · away
Pick: Metalurh Zaporizhya 47% · hit
W
Rebel3–0SC Poltava 225 Oct · home
Pick: SC Poltava 2 38% · missed
W
Rebel2–1Metalurh Zaporizhya29 Aug · home
Pick: Rebel 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Oleksandria II

W
Oleksandria II2–1Atlet7 Nov · home
Pick: Oleksandria II 48% · hit
L
Penuel1–0Oleksandria II30 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria II 49% · missed
W
Oleksandria II3–1Lozova25 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria II 70% · hit
L
Metalurh Zaporizhya2–0Oleksandria II17 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria II 39% · missed
L
Oleksandria II0–1Trostianets12 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria II 35% · missed

About this match

Rebel and Oleksandria II meet in Druha Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Rebel win 27.1%, draw 34.0%, Oleksandria II win 38.8%. The pick is Oleksandria II win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.2%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.