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Druha Liga Ukraine Round 15 2026

Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Trostianets

Metalurh Zaporizhya Home · Elo 1,392
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Trostianets Away · Elo 1,518
Slavutych-Arena, Zaporizhia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Trostianets win
Metalurh Zaporizhya win
28.5%
Draw
29.6%
Trostianets winPick
41.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.2%
No57.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Metalurh Zaporizhya history44 matches
Trostianets history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 09:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Trostianets are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Trostianets are rated 126 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,518 against 1,392. On rating alone Trostianets would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Trostianets score far more

    0.61 goals a game over 44 matches for Metalurh Zaporizhya, against 1.35 over 40 for Trostianets.

  • Trostianets concede fewer

    Metalurh Zaporizhya concede 1.89 a game, Trostianets 0.98.

  • Metalurh Zaporizhya games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Metalurh Zaporizhya matches, against 45% for Trostianets. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Metalurh Zaporizhya
Trostianets@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1391.8
ELO
1517.6
44
ELO · Matches
40
1391.8
Current Team ELO
1517.6
1517.6
Current Opponent ELO
1391.8
-125.8
Current ELO Difference
125.8
0.33
Expected score
0.67
44
History Matches
40
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.02
41.49
Overperformance
51.41
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.20
0.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
40
0.70
PPG
1.55
13.6%
Win rate
42.5%
29.5%
Draw rate
27.5%
56.8%
Loss rate
30.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
20
0.62
PPG
1.35
9.5%
Win rate
35.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
30.0%
57.1%
Loss rate
35.0%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
21
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.61
Goals for per game
1.35
45.5%
Scoring rate
70.0%
40.9%
BTTS rate
45.0%
0.62
Goals for per game
1.15
47.6%
Scoring rate
60.0%
47.6%
BTTS rate
45.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
44
History Matches
40
0.61
Goals Mean
1.35
0.80
Goals Std
1.19
45.5%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
11.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
4.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
0.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.89
Goals against per game
0.98
81.8%
Conceding rate
65.0%
2.05
Goals against per game
1.15
90.5%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
44
History Matches
40
1.89
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.45
Conceded Std
0.96
52.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.5%
36.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.5%
2.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
54.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
52.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
54.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
52.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
40
0.87
Result entropy
0.98
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.64
13.24
Stability score
1.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
37
4
Lead Matches
13
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.87
17
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.34
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.98
Rest days
83.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
19
0.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
100.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.86
75.70
Portability Score
58.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-125.8
PPG-0.85
GF-0.74
GA0.91
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.73
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate24.5%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate12.4%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.74
Goals Std-0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.91
Conceded Std0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate29.8%
Conceded 3+ rate28.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score11.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.35
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.48
Portability Score16.96
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Current Team ELO-125.8
Current Opponent ELO125.8
Current ELO Difference-251.5
Expected score-0.35
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Metalurh Zaporizhya

W
Metalurh Zaporizhya1–0Rebel30 Oct · home
Pick: Metalurh Zaporizhya 47% · hit
L
Penuel2–0Metalurh Zaporizhya25 Oct · away
Pick: Metalurh Zaporizhya 38% · missed
W
Metalurh Zaporizhya2–0Oleksandria II17 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria II 39% · missed
L
Rebel2–1Metalurh Zaporizhya29 Aug · away
Pick: Rebel 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Trostianets

W
Trostianets3–2SC Poltava 27 Nov · home
Pick: Trostianets 42% · hit
L
Karbon Cherkasy2–1Trostianets30 Oct · away
Pick: Karbon Cherkasy 35% · hit
D
Trostianets1–1Atlet24 Oct · home
Pick: Trostianets 56% · missed
L
Lozova1–0Trostianets17 Oct · away
Pick: Trostianets 58% · missed
W
Oleksandria II0–1Trostianets12 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria II 35% · missed

About this match

Metalurh Zaporizhya and Trostianets meet in Druha Liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 09:30 UTC. The match is played at Slavutych-Arena, Zaporizhia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Metalurh Zaporizhya win 28.5%, draw 29.6%, Trostianets win 41.8%. The pick is Trostianets win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 42.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.