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League One England Round 15 2026

Doncaster vs Leyton Orient

Doncaster Home · Elo 1,527
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leyton Orient Away · Elo 1,512
Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leyton Orient win
Doncaster win
34.3%
Draw
25.4%
Leyton Orient winPick
40.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.2%
Under 2.546.8%

How much we know

Doncaster history94 matches
Leyton Orient history94 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Leyton Orient are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,527 against 1,512. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 94 matches for Doncaster, against 1.61 over 94 for Leyton Orient.

  • Defences are close

    Doncaster concede 1.29 a game, Leyton Orient 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Doncaster matches, against 61% for Leyton Orient. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Doncaster
Leyton Orient@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.4
ELO
1511.7
94
ELO · Matches
94
1527.4
Current Team ELO
1511.7
1511.7
Current Opponent ELO
1527.4
15.69
Current ELO Difference
-15.69
0.52
Expected score
0.48
94
History Matches
94
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.93
Overperformance
49.91
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
94
Matches
94
1.56
PPG
1.43
44.7%
Win rate
41.5%
22.3%
Draw rate
18.1%
33.0%
Loss rate
40.4%
79.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
26.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
51
1.54
PPG
1.37
43.5%
Win rate
41.2%
23.9%
Draw rate
13.7%
32.6%
Loss rate
45.1%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
46
History Matches
51
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.61
76.6%
Scoring rate
76.6%
54.3%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.76
80.4%
Scoring rate
72.5%
60.9%
BTTS rate
60.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
94
History Matches
94
1.50
Goals Mean
1.61
1.24
Goals Std
1.63
76.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.6%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
41.5%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.2%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.35
73.4%
Conceding rate
77.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.47
78.3%
Conceding rate
80.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
94
History Matches
94
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.20
Conceded Std
1.06
31.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.4%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.3%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.3%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
94
History Matches
94
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.02
3.46
Stability score
5.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
94
Eligible Matches
94
33
Lead Matches
26
84.8%
Lead Win Rate
73.1%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.77
29
Trailing Matches
22
34.5%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
10.3%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
94
Halftime Coverage Matches
94
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.85
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
73
Normal Rest History Matches
77
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
10
Long Rest History Matches
11
2.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
10
Competition Season Count
11
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.98
Portability PPG Range
1.37
62.15
Portability Score
50.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
94
Clean History Matches
94
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO15.69
PPG0.14
GF-0.11
GA-0.06
PPG-1.00
PPG0.17
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate2.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate2.1%
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.36
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches0
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-1.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate11.8%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate7.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score11.37
Rest days0.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO15.69
Current Opponent ELO-15.69
Current ELO Difference31.38
Expected score0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Doncaster

L
Kidderminster Harriers3–0Doncaster7 Nov · away
Pick: Doncaster 36% · missed
W
Rochdale1–4Doncaster3 Nov · away
Pick: Rochdale 43% · missed
L
Milton Keynes Dons6–1Doncaster31 Oct · away
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 49% · hit
L
Luton3–1Doncaster27 Oct · away
Pick: Luton 46% · hit
W
Doncaster2–0Sheffield Wednesday24 Oct · home
Pick: Doncaster 47% · hit

Leyton Orient

W
Leyton Orient5–1Harborough Town7 Nov · home
Pick: Leyton Orient 50% · hit
W
Leyton Orient3–0Cambridge United31 Oct · home
Pick: Leyton Orient 44% · hit
L
Burton Albion2–1Leyton Orient24 Oct · away
Pick: Burton Albion 37% · hit
L
Reading1–0Leyton Orient21 Oct · away
Pick: Reading 39% · hit
W
Leyton Orient2–0Blackpool17 Oct · home
Pick: Leyton Orient 46% · hit

About this match

Doncaster and Leyton Orient meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Doncaster win 34.3%, draw 25.4%, Leyton Orient win 40.3%. The pick is Leyton Orient win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.2%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.