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League One England Round 15 2026

Luton vs Cambridge United

Luton Home · Elo 1,619
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cambridge United Away · Elo 1,587
Kenilworth Road, Luton Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Luton win
Luton winPick
39.5%
Draw
31.2%
Cambridge United win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Luton history84 matches
Cambridge United history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Luton are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Luton are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,619 against 1,587. On rating alone Luton would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Luton score more

    1.57 goals a game over 84 matches for Luton, against 1.38 over 90 for Cambridge United.

  • Cambridge United concede fewer

    Luton concede 1.20 a game, Cambridge United 0.92.

  • Luton games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Luton matches, against 42% for Cambridge United. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Luton
Cambridge United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1618.6
ELO
1587.2
84
ELO · Matches
90
1618.6
Current Team ELO
1587.2
1587.2
Current Opponent ELO
1618.6
31.37
Current ELO Difference
-31.37
0.55
Expected score
0.45
84
History Matches
90
0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
55.78
Overperformance
53.72
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.60
2.50
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
90
1.67
PPG
1.57
47.6%
Win rate
42.2%
23.8%
Draw rate
30.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
27.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.2%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.9%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
46
1.93
PPG
1.33
55.8%
Win rate
32.6%
25.6%
Draw rate
34.8%
18.6%
Loss rate
32.6%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
43
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.38
78.6%
Scoring rate
75.6%
52.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.13
81.4%
Scoring rate
69.6%
58.1%
BTTS rate
47.8%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
84
History Matches
90
1.57
Goals Mean
1.38
1.20
Goals Std
1.13
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.6%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
20.2%
Scored 3+ rate
17.8%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
0.92
70.2%
Conceding rate
64.4%
0.98
Goals against per game
1.00
69.8%
Conceding rate
63.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
84
History Matches
90
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.14
Conceded Std
0.88
31.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.1%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
90
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.49
4.16
Stability score
1.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
87
30
Lead Matches
31
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
71.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.78
19
Trailing Matches
16
31.6%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
62
Normal Rest History Matches
70
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
15
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
9
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.98
Portability PPG Range
1.15
57.05
Portability Score
56.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO31.37
PPG0.10
GF0.19
GA0.28
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate10.0%
Scored 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate7.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score2.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.72
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate15.7%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score0.19
Rest days3.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO31.37
Current Opponent ELO-31.37
Current ELO Difference62.75
Expected score0.09
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Luton

W
Luton2–0Forest Green7 Nov · home
Pick: Luton 42% · hit
D
Huddersfield1–1Luton3 Nov · away
Pick: Huddersfield 53% · missed
W
Peterborough0–2Luton31 Oct · away
Pick: Luton 37% · hit
W
Luton3–1Doncaster27 Oct · home
Pick: Luton 46% · hit
W
Luton2–1Leicester24 Oct · home
Pick: Luton 60% · hit

Cambridge United

W
Cambridge United6–0Brighton U213 Nov · home
Pick: Cambridge United 62% · hit
L
Leyton Orient3–0Cambridge United31 Oct · away
Pick: Leyton Orient 44% · hit
D
Sheffield Wednesday1–1Cambridge United27 Oct · away
Pick: Cambridge United 39% · missed
L
Cambridge United2–3Plymouth24 Oct · home
Pick: Cambridge United 53% · missed
D
Cambridge United2–2Wycombe20 Oct · home
Pick: Cambridge United 48% · missed

About this match

Luton and Cambridge United meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Kenilworth Road, Luton. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Luton win 39.5%, draw 31.2%, Cambridge United win 29.3%. The pick is Luton win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.