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League One England Round 15 2026

Peterborough vs Oxford United

Peterborough Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oxford United Away · Elo 1,495
Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Peterborough win
Peterborough winPick
40.9%
Draw
28.6%
Oxford United win
30.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.1%
Under 2.550.9%

How much we know

Peterborough history90 matches
Oxford United history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Peterborough are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,514 against 1,495. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Peterborough score more

    1.48 goals a game over 90 matches for Peterborough, against 1.08 over 79 for Oxford United.

  • Oxford United concede fewer

    Peterborough concede 1.42 a game, Oxford United 1.27.

  • Peterborough games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Peterborough matches, against 44% for Oxford United. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Peterborough
Oxford United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.9
ELO
1494.7
90
ELO · Matches
79
1513.9
Current Team ELO
1494.7
1494.7
Current Opponent ELO
1513.9
19.15
Current ELO Difference
-19.15
0.53
Expected score
0.47
90
History Matches
79
0.00
Residual Mean
0.00
49.71
Overperformance
50.20
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
90
Matches
79
1.33
PPG
1.15
37.8%
Win rate
29.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
27.8%
42.2%
Loss rate
43.0%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
54.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.3%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.5%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
38
1.41
PPG
1.00
38.5%
Win rate
23.7%
25.6%
Draw rate
28.9%
35.9%
Loss rate
47.4%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
39
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.08
80.0%
Scoring rate
63.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
49.4%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.08
74.4%
Scoring rate
63.2%
56.4%
BTTS rate
57.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
90
History Matches
79
1.48
Goals Mean
1.08
1.42
Goals Std
1.05
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
63.3%
34.4%
Scored 2+ rate
31.6%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.1%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.27
76.7%
Conceding rate
77.2%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.32
76.9%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
90
History Matches
79
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.14
Conceded Std
1.04
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.1%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
90
History Matches
79
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.53
4.09
Stability score
1.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
90
Eligible Matches
79
28
Lead Matches
20
82.1%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.85
28
Trailing Matches
27
25.0%
Non-loss rate
18.5%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
90
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.42
67
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
10
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
10
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.83
1.18
Portability PPG Range
2.00
56.84
Portability Score
37.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
90
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO19.15
PPG0.18
GF0.40
GA0.16
PPG-0.50
PPG0.41
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate16.7%
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Conceded 2+ rate6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score2.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate2.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate6.5%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.45
Portability PPG Range-0.82
Portability Score19.11
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.79
Current Team ELO19.15
Current Opponent ELO-19.15
Current ELO Difference38.30
Expected score0.06
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Peterborough

L
Peterborough0–5Reading7 Nov · home
Pick: Peterborough 41% · missed
L
Peterborough0–2Luton31 Oct · home
Pick: Luton 37% · hit
L
Bradford2–0Peterborough27 Oct · away
Pick: Bradford 41% · hit
D
Bromley1–1Peterborough24 Oct · away
Pick: Bromley 48% · missed
L
Huddersfield4–1Peterborough20 Oct · away
Pick: Huddersfield 53% · hit

Oxford United

L
Oxford United0–1Stevenage7 Nov · home
Pick: Stevenage 40% · hit
W
Oxford United2–0Reading4 Nov · home
Pick: Oxford United 41% · hit
D
Barnsley1–1Oxford United31 Oct · away
Pick: Barnsley 45% · missed
W
Oxford United1–0Stockport County27 Oct · home
Pick: Oxford United 37% · hit
D
Oxford United0–0Bradford24 Oct · home
Pick: Bradford 45% · missed

About this match

Peterborough and Oxford United meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Peterborough win 40.9%, draw 28.6%, Oxford United win 30.5%. The pick is Peterborough win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.1%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.