Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion
Match result probability Model pick: Milton Keynes Dons win
Milton Keynes Dons winPick
39.9%
Draw
30.5%
Burton Albion win
29.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.9%
No46.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%
How much we know
Milton Keynes Dons history85 matches
Burton Albion history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Milton Keynes Dons
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.9%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Milton Keynes Dons are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Milton Keynes Dons are rated 65 Elo points higher
Elo 1,559 against 1,494. On rating alone Milton Keynes Dons would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Milton Keynes Dons score more
1.41 goals a game over 85 matches for Milton Keynes Dons, against 1.18 over 85 for Burton Albion.
-
Defences are close
Milton Keynes Dons concede 1.29 a game, Burton Albion 1.21.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
52% of Milton Keynes Dons matches, against 49% for Burton Albion. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Burton Albion@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1558.5
ELO
1494.0
85
ELO · Matches
85
1558.5
Current Team ELO
1494.0
1494.0
Current Opponent ELO
1558.5
64.52
Current ELO Difference
-64.52
0.59
Expected score
0.41
85
History Matches
85
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.60
Overperformance
50.23
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals 90
85
Matches
85
1.40
PPG
1.28
37.6%
Win rate
32.9%
27.1%
Draw rate
29.4%
35.3%
Loss rate
37.6%
75.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
51.8%
Over 2.5 rate
49.4%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals 100
36
Matches
40
1.61
PPG
1.13
44.4%
Win rate
25.0%
27.8%
Draw rate
37.5%
27.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.5%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
36
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.18
71.8%
Scoring rate
69.4%
54.1%
BTTS rate
49.4%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.05
72.2%
Scoring rate
67.5%
52.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
85
History Matches
85
1.41
Goals Mean
1.18
1.30
Goals Std
1.19
71.8%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
29.4%
16.5%
Scored 3+ rate
10.6%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.21
74.1%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.25
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
85
History Matches
85
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.11
Conceded Std
1.05
36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
85
History Matches
85
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.75
0.87
Stability score
0.46
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
85
Eligible Matches
85
36
Lead Matches
26
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
65.4%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.72
22
Trailing Matches
24
22.7%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
64
Normal Rest History Matches
71
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
13
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
9
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.87
Portability PPG Std
0.56
2.33
Portability PPG Range
1.50
36.41
Portability Score
47.22
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
85
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO64.52
PPG0.12
GF0.24
GA0.08
PPG-1.00
PPG0.49
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate2.4%
Scored 2+ rate11.8%
Scored 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate1.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches0
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate9.6%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate1.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.83
Portability Score-10.82
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.38
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO64.52
Current Opponent ELO-64.52
Current ELO Difference129.0
Expected score0.18
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Milton Keynes Dons
W
Milton Keynes Dons2–1Swindon Town7 Nov · home
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 43% · hit W
Milton Keynes Dons6–1Doncaster31 Oct · home
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 49% · hit W
Milton Keynes Dons4–1Bromley27 Oct · home
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 40% · hit W
Stevenage0–1Milton Keynes Dons24 Oct · away
Pick: Milton Keynes Dons 37% · hit L
Blackpool2–0Milton Keynes Dons20 Oct · away
Pick: Blackpool 46% · hit Burton Albion
W
Burton Albion4–0AFC Rushden & Diamonds7 Nov · home
Pick: Burton Albion 64% · hit L
Wycombe2–0Burton Albion31 Oct · away
Pick: Wycombe 47% · hit W
Burton Albion2–1Leyton Orient24 Oct · home
Pick: Burton Albion 37% · hit D
Burton Albion0–0Bradford20 Oct · home
Pick: Bradford 45% · missed D
Peterborough2–2Burton Albion17 Oct · away
Pick: Peterborough 43% · missed About this match
Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion meet in League One on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadium MK, Milton Keynes. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Milton Keynes Dons win 39.9%, draw 30.5%, Burton Albion win 29.6%. The pick is Milton Keynes Dons win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.8%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.