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FA Trophy England Round 128 2026

Dover vs Burgess Hill Town

Dover Home · Elo 1,469
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Burgess Hill Town Away · Elo 1,539
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dover win
Dover winPick
42.0%
Draw
24.1%
Burgess Hill Town win
33.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.0%
Under 2.539.0%

How much we know

Dover history80 matches
Burgess Hill Town history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Dover are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Burgess Hill Town are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,469. On rating alone Burgess Hill Town would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Burgess Hill Town score more

    1.36 goals a game over 80 matches for Dover, against 1.82 over 67 for Burgess Hill Town.

  • Defences are close

    Dover concede 1.54 a game, Burgess Hill Town 1.58.

  • Burgess Hill Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Dover matches, against 66% for Burgess Hill Town. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dover
Burgess Hill Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.5
ELO
1539.0
80
ELO · Matches
67
1469.5
Current Team ELO
1539.0
1539.0
Current Opponent ELO
1469.5
-69.53
Current ELO Difference
69.53
0.40
Expected score
0.60
80
History Matches
67
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
49.51
Overperformance
52.47
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
67
1.28
PPG
1.61
35.0%
Win rate
46.3%
22.5%
Draw rate
22.4%
42.5%
Loss rate
31.3%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.3%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
32
1.33
PPG
1.56
35.6%
Win rate
43.8%
26.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
37.8%
Loss rate
31.3%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
45
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.36
Goals for per game
1.82
78.8%
Scoring rate
83.6%
62.5%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.78
84.4%
Scoring rate
78.1%
64.4%
BTTS rate
62.5%
80
History Matches
67
1.36
Goals Mean
1.82
1.08
Goals Std
1.40
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.2%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.4%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.54
Goals against per game
1.58
80.0%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.63
80.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
80
History Matches
67
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.16
Conceded Std
1.26
46.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.3%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.4%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
67
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.97
2.90
Stability score
3.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
65
15
Lead Matches
29
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.9%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.82
29
Trailing Matches
16
27.6%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
67
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
9
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.75
65.29
Portability Score
62.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-69.53
PPG-0.34
GF-0.46
GA-0.04
PPG-0.23
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches13
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score-1.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate4.1%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score3.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.27
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Current Team ELO-69.53
Current Opponent ELO69.53
Current ELO Difference-139.1
Expected score-0.20
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dover

W
Dover2–0Wealdstone7 Nov · home
Pick: Wealdstone 44% · missed
W
Dover1–0Farnham Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Dover 44% · hit
L
Dover0–1Chelmsford City27 Oct · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit
D
Salisbury1–1Dover24 Oct · away
Pick: Salisbury 55% · missed
W
Dover3–2Dorking Wanderers17 Oct · home
Pick: Dorking Wanderers 42% · missed

Burgess Hill Town

D
Chatham Town1–1Burgess Hill Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Chatham Town 58% · missed
D
Wingate & Finchley1–1Burgess Hill Town3 Nov · away
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 39% · missed
L
Burgess Hill Town0–6Enfield Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Enfield Town 44% · hit
L
St Albans City3–1Burgess Hill Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 40% · missed
W
Whyteleafe2–3Burgess Hill Town21 Oct · away
Pick: Burgess Hill Town 70% · hit

About this match

Dover and Burgess Hill Town meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Dover win 42.0%, draw 24.1%, Burgess Hill Town win 33.9%. The pick is Dover win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.0%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.