ScoreProb
FNL Czechia Round 14 2026

Dukla Praha vs Příbram

Dukla Praha Home · Elo 1,507
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Příbram Away · Elo 1,556
Stadion Juliska, Prague Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dukla Praha win
Dukla Praha winPick
38.1%
Draw
30.1%
Příbram win
31.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.3%
Under 2.553.7%

How much we know

Dukla Praha history76 matches
Příbram history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Dukla Praha are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Příbram are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,507. On rating alone Příbram would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Příbram score more

    1.09 goals a game over 76 matches for Dukla Praha, against 1.30 over 67 for Příbram.

  • Příbram concede fewer

    Dukla Praha concede 1.33 a game, Příbram 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Dukla Praha matches, against 49% for Příbram. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dukla Praha
Příbram
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.0
ELO
1555.8
76
ELO · Matches
67
1507.0
Current Team ELO
1555.8
1555.8
Current Opponent ELO
1507.0
-48.80
Current ELO Difference
48.80
0.43
Expected score
0.57
76
History Matches
67
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
49.53
Overperformance
51.93
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
67
1.16
PPG
1.58
27.6%
Win rate
43.3%
32.9%
Draw rate
28.4%
39.5%
Loss rate
28.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
49.3%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
39
1.21
PPG
1.46
30.3%
Win rate
41.0%
30.3%
Draw rate
23.1%
39.4%
Loss rate
35.9%
75.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
33
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.30
65.8%
Scoring rate
73.1%
47.4%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.26
66.7%
Scoring rate
69.2%
45.5%
BTTS rate
46.2%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
76
History Matches
67
1.09
Goals Mean
1.30
1.08
Goals Std
0.98
65.8%
Scored 1+ rate
73.1%
30.3%
Scored 2+ rate
46.3%
7.9%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.19
68.4%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.23
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
76
History Matches
67
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.10
Conceded Std
1.20
47.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
15.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.0%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
67
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.63
0.96
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
67
23
Lead Matches
28
52.2%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.86
24
Trailing Matches
21
16.7%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.06
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
27
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.49
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.80
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.26
Portability PPG Range
1.73
55.58
Portability Score
45.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-48.80
PPG-0.42
GF-0.21
GA0.13
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate7.3%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches9
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.61
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.26
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.40
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.48
Portability Score9.62
Rest days-3.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO-48.80
Current Opponent ELO48.80
Current ELO Difference-97.60
Expected score-0.14
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dukla Praha

W
Viktoria Žižkov0–1Dukla Praha1 Nov · away
Pick: Dukla Praha 46% · hit
D
Dukla Praha1–1Kladno23 Oct · home
Pick: Dukla Praha 48% · missed
L
Karviná3–0Dukla Praha16 Oct · away
Pick: Karviná 47% · hit
W
Dukla Praha3–2Baník Ostrava II12 Oct · home
Pick: Dukla Praha 44% · hit
W
Horní Ředice0–5Dukla Praha25 Aug · away
Pick: Dukla Praha 39% · hit

Příbram

W
Příbram3–0Táborsko31 Oct · home
Pick: Táborsko 42% · missed
D
Arsenal Česká Lípa2–2Příbram24 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal Česká Lípa 45% · missed
L
Příbram2–3Třinec16 Oct · home
Pick: Příbram 41% · missed
W
Příbram2–1Karviná29 Aug · home
Pick: Příbram 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dukla Praha and Příbram meet in FNL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Juliska, Prague. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Dukla Praha win 38.1%, draw 30.1%, Příbram win 31.8%. The pick is Dukla Praha win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.3%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.