ScoreProb
FNL Czechia Round 14 2026

Vysočina Jihlava vs Karviná

Vysočina Jihlava Home · Elo 1,524
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Karviná Away · Elo 1,585
Stadion v Jiraskove ulici, Jihlava Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karviná win
Vysočina Jihlava win
36.5%
Draw
23.8%
Karviná winPick
39.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%

How much we know

Vysočina Jihlava history69 matches
Karviná history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Karviná are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Karviná are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,585 against 1,524. On rating alone Karviná would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Karviná score more

    1.49 goals a game over 69 matches for Vysočina Jihlava, against 1.75 over 67 for Karviná.

  • Vysočina Jihlava concede fewer

    Vysočina Jihlava concede 1.23 a game, Karviná 1.57.

  • Karviná games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Vysočina Jihlava matches, against 72% for Karviná. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vysočina Jihlava
Karviná
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.5
ELO
1585.2
69
ELO · Matches
67
1523.5
Current Team ELO
1585.2
1585.2
Current Opponent ELO
1523.5
-61.65
Current ELO Difference
61.65
0.41
Expected score
0.59
69
History Matches
67
0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
50.80
Overperformance
54.61
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
3.00
2.60
Goals for per game
3.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.40
2.30
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.53
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
3.53
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
67
1.36
PPG
1.63
37.7%
Win rate
50.7%
23.2%
Draw rate
10.4%
39.1%
Loss rate
38.8%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.6%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.6%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.8%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
35
1.53
PPG
1.66
43.8%
Win rate
51.4%
21.9%
Draw rate
11.4%
34.4%
Loss rate
37.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.1%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
32
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.75
69.6%
Scoring rate
74.6%
49.3%
BTTS rate
61.2%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.94
68.8%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
65.7%
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.49
Goals Mean
1.75
1.58
Goals Std
1.52
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
52.2%
23.2%
Scored 3+ rate
26.9%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.57
73.9%
Conceding rate
83.6%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.69
78.1%
Conceding rate
91.4%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.01
Conceded Std
1.22
37.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.8%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
8.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
67
0.98
Result entropy
0.86
2.16
Goal Difference Std
2.26
2.26
Stability score
13.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
67
24
Lead Matches
17
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.90
22
Trailing Matches
19
22.7%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.06
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.86
41
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.51
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
24
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
2.40
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.65
2.03
Portability PPG Range
1.76
43.34
Portability Score
43.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-61.65
PPG-0.26
GF-0.25
GA-0.34
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.13
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.02
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.77
History Matches2
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-11.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.65
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate6.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-0.08
Rest days-3.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-61.65
Current Opponent ELO61.65
Current ELO Difference-123.3
Expected score-0.18
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vysočina Jihlava

W
Baník Ostrava II1–3Vysočina Jihlava2 Nov · away
Pick: Vysočina Jihlava 40% · hit
L
Vysočina Jihlava1–6Plzen28 Oct · home
Pick: Plzen 48% · hit
W
Vysočina Jihlava2–0Vlašim23 Oct · home
Pick: Vysočina Jihlava 42% · hit
W
Opava1–3Vysočina Jihlava16 Oct · away
Pick: Vysočina Jihlava 38% · hit
W
Motorlet Praha0–3Vysočina Jihlava25 Aug · away
Pick: Vysočina Jihlava 43% · hit

Karviná

D
Karviná2–2Slavia Praha II30 Oct · home
Pick: Karviná 47% · missed
W
Ústí nad Labem1–3Karviná23 Oct · away
Pick: Ústí nad Labem 54% · missed
W
Karviná3–0Dukla Praha16 Oct · home
Pick: Karviná 47% · hit
L
Příbram2–1Karviná29 Aug · away
Pick: Příbram 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vysočina Jihlava and Karviná meet in FNL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion v Jiraskove ulici, Jihlava. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Vysočina Jihlava win 36.5%, draw 23.8%, Karviná win 39.7%. The pick is Karviná win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.7%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.