ScoreProb
FNL Czechia Round 14 2026

Ústí nad Labem vs Viktoria Žižkov

Ústí nad Labem Home · Elo 1,614
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Viktoria Žižkov Away · Elo 1,509
Town Stadium Usti, Usti nad Labem Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ústí nad Labem win
Ústí nad Labem winPick
65.6%
Draw
16.1%
Viktoria Žižkov win
18.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.8%
Under 2.530.2%

How much we know

Ústí nad Labem history70 matches
Viktoria Žižkov history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Ústí nad Labem are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ústí nad Labem are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,509. On rating alone Ústí nad Labem would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Ústí nad Labem score more

    2.19 goals a game over 70 matches for Ústí nad Labem, against 1.52 over 69 for Viktoria Žižkov.

  • Ústí nad Labem concede fewer

    Ústí nad Labem concede 1.36 a game, Viktoria Žižkov 1.78.

  • Ústí nad Labem games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Ústí nad Labem matches, against 64% for Viktoria Žižkov. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ústí nad Labem
Viktoria Žižkov
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1614.1
ELO
1508.9
70
ELO · Matches
69
1614.1
Current Team ELO
1508.9
1508.9
Current Opponent ELO
1614.1
105.2
Current ELO Difference
-105.2
0.65
Expected score
0.35
70
History Matches
69
0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
55.51
Overperformance
50.85
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
1.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
69
1.90
PPG
1.39
58.6%
Win rate
42.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
13.0%
27.1%
Loss rate
44.9%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.2%
74.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.8%
44.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
2.25
PPG
0.88
71.9%
Win rate
24.2%
9.4%
Draw rate
15.2%
18.8%
Loss rate
60.6%
90.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
78.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.19
Goals for per game
1.52
84.3%
Scoring rate
75.4%
58.6%
BTTS rate
59.4%
2.59
Goals for per game
1.09
84.4%
Scoring rate
63.6%
56.3%
BTTS rate
48.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
70
History Matches
69
2.19
Goals Mean
1.52
1.50
Goals Std
1.48
84.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
67.1%
Scored 2+ rate
42.0%
42.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
2.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.78
71.4%
Conceding rate
82.6%
1.03
Goals against per game
2.06
71.9%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
70
History Matches
69
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.36
Conceded Std
1.35
37.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.2%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.5%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
2.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
69
0.86
Result entropy
0.90
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.14
13.96
Stability score
9.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
69
32
Lead Matches
25
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
72.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.76
16
Trailing Matches
20
25.0%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.99
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.08
Rest days
73.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
41
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.60
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.80
8
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.64
1.57
Portability PPG Range
1.92
49.48
Portability Score
43.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO105.2
PPG0.51
GF0.66
GA-0.43
PPG1.60
PPG1.37
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.66
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate8.9%
Scored 2+ rate25.1%
Scored 3+ rate26.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate11.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score4.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.54
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate9.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate2.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.80
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score5.62
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.07
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO105.2
Current Opponent ELO-105.2
Current ELO Difference210.4
Expected score0.29
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ústí nad Labem

L
Vlašim3–0Ústí nad Labem30 Oct · away
Pick: Ústí nad Labem 38% · missed
L
Ústí nad Labem1–3Karviná23 Oct · home
Pick: Ústí nad Labem 54% · missed
D
Prostějov2–2Ústí nad Labem16 Oct · away
Pick: Ústí nad Labem 43% · missed
W
Táborsko0–1Ústí nad Labem29 Aug · away
Pick: Táborsko 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Viktoria Žižkov

L
Viktoria Žižkov0–1Dukla Praha1 Nov · home
Pick: Dukla Praha 46% · hit
L
Hanácká2–1Viktoria Žižkov24 Oct · away
Pick: Hanácká 45% · hit
D
Viktoria Žižkov2–2Táborsko18 Oct · home
Pick: Táborsko 53% · missed
L
Kladno3–0Viktoria Žižkov30 Aug · away
Pick: Kladno 68% · hit
W
Hluboka nad Vltavou0–2Viktoria Žižkov25 Aug · away
Pick: Viktoria Žižkov 42% · hit

About this match

Ústí nad Labem and Viktoria Žižkov meet in FNL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Town Stadium Usti, Usti nad Labem. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Ústí nad Labem win 65.6%, draw 16.1%, Viktoria Žižkov win 18.3%. The pick is Ústí nad Labem win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.8%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.