ScoreProb
FNL Czechia Round 14 2026

Opava vs Vlašim

Opava Home · Elo 1,498
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vlašim Away · Elo 1,561
Simply Arena, Opava Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vlašim win
Opava win
34.8%
Draw
24.0%
Vlašim winPick
41.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%

How much we know

Opava history73 matches
Vlašim history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vlašim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vlašim are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,498. On rating alone Vlašim would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Vlašim score more

    1.37 goals a game over 73 matches for Opava, against 1.58 over 72 for Vlašim.

  • Defences are close

    Opava concede 1.18 a game, Vlašim 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Opava matches, against 51% for Vlašim. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Opava
Vlašim
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1497.9
ELO
1560.6
73
ELO · Matches
72
1497.9
Current Team ELO
1560.6
1560.6
Current Opponent ELO
1497.9
-62.71
Current ELO Difference
62.71
0.41
Expected score
0.59
73
History Matches
72
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
49.97
Overperformance
53.55
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.80
1.10
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
72
1.32
PPG
1.42
32.9%
Win rate
38.9%
32.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.2%
Loss rate
36.1%
69.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
47.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
30.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.9%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
35
1.59
PPG
1.03
43.2%
Win rate
25.7%
29.7%
Draw rate
25.7%
27.0%
Loss rate
48.6%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
40.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
37
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.58
63.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
46.6%
BTTS rate
56.9%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.20
75.7%
Scoring rate
77.1%
59.5%
BTTS rate
62.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
73
History Matches
72
1.37
Goals Mean
1.58
1.49
Goals Std
1.41
63.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.21
68.5%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.46
73.0%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
73
History Matches
72
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.06
Conceded Std
1.08
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.9%
9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
72
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.76
0.02
Stability score
1.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
72
20
Lead Matches
19
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.84
23
Trailing Matches
19
26.1%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
42
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.20
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
7
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.70
0.56
Portability PPG Range
2.14
70.32
Portability Score
41.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-62.71
PPG-0.10
GF-0.21
GA-0.03
PPG-0.20
PPG0.57
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Conceded 2+ rate3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-1.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.1%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.49
Portability PPG Range-1.59
Portability Score28.65
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.08
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-62.71
Current Opponent ELO62.71
Current ELO Difference-125.4
Expected score-0.18
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Opava

D
Prostějov0–0Opava1 Nov · away
Pick: Prostějov 51% · missed
D
Opava1–1Baník Ostrava II23 Oct · home
Pick: Opava 39% · missed
L
Opava1–3Vysočina Jihlava16 Oct · home
Pick: Vysočina Jihlava 38% · hit
D
Slavia Praha II3–3Opava30 Aug · away
Pick: Slavia Praha II 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vlašim

W
Vlašim3–0Ústí nad Labem30 Oct · home
Pick: Ústí nad Labem 38% · missed
L
Vysočina Jihlava2–0Vlašim23 Oct · away
Pick: Vysočina Jihlava 42% · hit
W
Vlašim1–0Hanácká16 Oct · home
Pick: Vlašim 59% · hit
L
Arsenal Česká Lípa2–1Vlašim29 Aug · away
Pick: Vlašim 42% · missed
W
Baník Sokolov0–3Vlašim26 Aug · away
Pick: Baník Sokolov 40% · missed

About this match

Opava and Vlašim meet in FNL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Simply Arena, Opava. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Opava win 34.8%, draw 24.0%, Vlašim win 41.2%. The pick is Vlašim win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.