Elazığspor vs Şanlıurfaspor
Elazığspor
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Şanlıurfaspor
Match result probability Model pick: Elazığspor win
Elazığspor winPick
50.3%
Draw
23.2%
Şanlıurfaspor win
26.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.3%
No43.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.8%
Under 2.539.2%
How much we know
Elazığspor history57 matches
Şanlıurfaspor history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Elazığspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Elazığspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Elazığspor are rated 110 Elo points higher
Elo 1,642 against 1,532. On rating alone Elazığspor would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Elazığspor score more
2.25 goals a game over 57 matches for Elazığspor, against 1.50 over 56 for Şanlıurfaspor.
-
Elazığspor concede fewer
Elazığspor concede 0.98 a game, Şanlıurfaspor 1.29.
-
Elazığspor games more often go over 2.5 goals
65% of Elazığspor matches, against 54% for Şanlıurfaspor. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elazığspor
Şanlıurfaspor
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1641.8
ELO
1531.7
57
ELO · Matches
56
1641.8
Current Team ELO
1531.7
1531.7
Current Opponent ELO
1641.8
110.1
Current ELO Difference
-110.1
0.65
Expected score
0.35
57
History Matches
56
0.12
Residual Mean
0.03
59.12
Overperformance
51.90
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
1.30
2.50
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
56
2.04
PPG
1.45
63.2%
Win rate
41.1%
14.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
22.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
80.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
40.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
29
2.17
PPG
1.52
69.0%
Win rate
44.8%
10.3%
Draw rate
17.2%
20.7%
Loss rate
37.9%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.25
Goals for per game
1.50
87.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
49.1%
BTTS rate
55.4%
2.10
Goals for per game
1.69
96.6%
Scoring rate
82.8%
55.2%
BTTS rate
65.5%
57
History Matches
56
2.25
Goals Mean
1.50
1.70
Goals Std
1.32
87.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
57.9%
Scored 2+ rate
46.4%
38.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
2.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.98
Goals against per game
1.29
56.1%
Conceding rate
73.2%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.38
58.6%
Conceding rate
75.9%
57
History Matches
56
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.10
Conceded Std
1.03
29.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
12.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
12.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
41.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
56
0.82
Result entropy
0.97
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.62
17.81
Stability score
3.21
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
56
24
Lead Matches
19
95.8%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.75
5
Trailing Matches
11
0.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
181.9
Rest days
188.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.99
74.33
Portability Score
50.33
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO110.1
PPG0.59
GF0.75
GA-0.30
PPG0.66
PPG1.00
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate17.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate17.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.75
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate16.3%
Scored 2+ rate11.5%
Scored 3+ rate19.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate17.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.57
Stability score14.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate27.4%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.32
Portability PPG Range-0.64
Portability Score24.00
Rest days-6.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO110.1
Current Opponent ELO-110.1
Current ELO Difference220.2
Expected score0.31
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Elazığspor
W
Kastamonuspor0–5Elazığspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Elazığspor 50% · hit L
Elazığspor0–2Talasgücü Belediyespor27 Oct · home
Pick: Elazığspor 57% · missed W
Isparta 32 Spor3–4Elazığspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Elazığspor 45% · hit W
Elazığspor3–0Arnavutköy Belediyespor17 Oct · home
Pick: Elazığspor 67% · hit L
Elazığspor2–3Çorluspor 19474 Oct · home
Pick: Elazığspor 49% · missed Şanlıurfaspor
W
Şanlıurfaspor4–0Isparta 32 Spor1 Nov · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 53% · hit W
Şanlıurfaspor3–1Gölcükspor28 Oct · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 70% · hit W
Arnavutköy Belediyespor0–2Şanlıurfaspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 44% · hit W
Şanlıurfaspor4–2Hatayspor17 Oct · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 58% · hit D
Şanlıurfaspor1–1Güzide Gebzespor5 Oct · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 45% · missed About this match
Elazığspor and Şanlıurfaspor meet in 2. Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Elazig Ataturk Stadyumu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Elazığspor win 50.3%, draw 23.2%, Şanlıurfaspor win 26.5%. The pick is Elazığspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.8%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.