ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Erzgebirge Aue U19 vs RB Leipzig U19

Erzgebirge Aue U19 Home · Elo 1,455
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
RB Leipzig U19 Away · Elo 1,605
Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: RB Leipzig U19 win
Erzgebirge Aue U19 win
16.3%
Draw
14.1%
RB Leipzig U19 winPick
69.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.0%
Under 2.527.0%

How much we know

Erzgebirge Aue U19 history41 matches
RB Leipzig U19 history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why RB Leipzig U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • RB Leipzig U19 are rated 150 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,605 against 1,455. On rating alone RB Leipzig U19 would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • RB Leipzig U19 score far more

    1.51 goals a game over 41 matches for Erzgebirge Aue U19, against 2.93 over 42 for RB Leipzig U19.

  • RB Leipzig U19 concede fewer

    Erzgebirge Aue U19 concede 2.02 a game, RB Leipzig U19 1.57.

  • RB Leipzig U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Erzgebirge Aue U19 matches, against 76% for RB Leipzig U19. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Erzgebirge Aue U19
RB Leipzig U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.1
ELO
1605.4
41
ELO · Matches
42
1455.1
Current Team ELO
1605.4
1605.4
Current Opponent ELO
1455.1
-150.3
Current ELO Difference
150.3
0.30
Expected score
0.70
41
History Matches
42
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.13
46.19
Overperformance
58.63
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
3.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
2.50
2.20
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.86
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
2.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
42
1.20
PPG
2.10
34.1%
Win rate
66.7%
17.1%
Draw rate
9.5%
48.8%
Loss rate
23.8%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
63.4%
Over 2.5 rate
76.2%
46.3%
Over 3.5 rate
64.3%
2.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
20
1.15
PPG
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
65.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.0%
45.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
65.0%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
20
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
2.93
68.3%
Scoring rate
88.1%
51.2%
BTTS rate
69.0%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.90
70.0%
Scoring rate
90.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
75.0%
41
History Matches
42
1.51
Goals Mean
2.93
1.40
Goals Std
1.96
68.3%
Scored 1+ rate
88.1%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
76.2%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
52.4%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
2.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.02
Goals against per game
1.57
80.5%
Conceding rate
81.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
3.33
Goals against per game
1.25
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
41
History Matches
42
2.02
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.87
Conceded Std
1.16
53.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.6%
29.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
31.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
19.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
42
0.93
Result entropy
0.76
2.67
Goal Difference Std
2.29
7.26
Stability score
23.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
42
15
Lead Matches
23
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.94
11
Trailing Matches
7
0.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.60
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.06
23
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
2.25
33.3%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
3.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
3
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.25
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.61
69.46
Portability Score
66.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-150.3
PPG-0.90
GF-1.42
GA0.45
PPG-1.25
PPG-0.95
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate19.8%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-1.42
Goals Std-0.56
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Goals Mean-1.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.81
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.45
Conceded Std0.71
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.87
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-16.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.58
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score2.62
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.06
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Current Team ELO-150.3
Current Opponent ELO150.3
Current ELO Difference-300.6
Expected score-0.41
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-12.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Erzgebirge Aue U19

L
Greuther Fürth U196–1Erzgebirge Aue U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Greuther Fürth U19 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

RB Leipzig U19

L
RB Leipzig U192–4Greuther Fürth U1931 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 78% · missed
L
Real Madrid U195–2RB Leipzig U1921 Oct · away
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 53% · missed
W
RB Leipzig U195–1Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1917 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 88% · hit
L
RB Leipzig U191–6PSV U1913 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Erzgebirge Aue U19 and RB Leipzig U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Erzgebirgsstadion, Aue. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Erzgebirge Aue U19 win 16.3%, draw 14.1%, RB Leipzig U19 win 69.6%. The pick is RB Leipzig U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.0%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.