ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids

FC Dallas Home · Elo 1,550
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Colorado Rapids Away · Elo 1,487
Toyota Stadium, Frisco Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Dallas win
FC Dallas winPick
40.4%
Draw
25.6%
Colorado Rapids win
34.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.8%
No41.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%

How much we know

FC Dallas history64 matches
Colorado Rapids history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Dallas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Dallas are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,550 against 1,487. On rating alone FC Dallas would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • FC Dallas score more

    1.67 goals a game over 64 matches for FC Dallas, against 1.37 over 65 for Colorado Rapids.

  • Defences are close

    FC Dallas concede 1.55 a game, Colorado Rapids 1.40.

  • FC Dallas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of FC Dallas matches, against 51% for Colorado Rapids. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Dallas
Colorado Rapids
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.0
ELO
1486.9
64
ELO · Matches
65
1550.0
Current Team ELO
1486.9
1486.9
Current Opponent ELO
1550.0
63.04
Current ELO Difference
-63.04
0.59
Expected score
0.41
64
History Matches
65
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
53.22
Overperformance
49.80
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
65
1.45
PPG
1.35
39.1%
Win rate
38.5%
28.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
32.8%
Loss rate
41.5%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
42.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
30
1.36
PPG
0.83
36.4%
Win rate
20.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
23.3%
36.4%
Loss rate
56.7%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
60.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
33
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.37
76.6%
Scoring rate
73.8%
62.5%
BTTS rate
50.8%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.10
81.8%
Scoring rate
60.0%
69.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.47
66.7%
Scoring rate
68.4%
66.7%
BTTS rate
42.1%
64
History Matches
65
1.67
Goals Mean
1.37
1.29
Goals Std
1.23
76.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
54.7%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.40
78.1%
Conceding rate
73.8%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.70
81.8%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.72
Goals against per game
1.32
88.9%
Conceding rate
68.4%
64
History Matches
65
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.25
Conceded Std
1.13
45.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
21.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
65
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.72
0.82
Stability score
4.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
62
21
Lead Matches
19
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.79
16
Trailing Matches
22
37.5%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
35
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.51
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
23
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
19
1.33
PPG
1.32
33.3%
Win rate
42.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
5.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
52.6%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
18
Current Competition Matches
19
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.32
-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.16
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.70
Portability PPG Range
1.33
63.95
Portability Score
51.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO63.04
PPG0.10
GF0.30
GA0.15
PPG0.02
PPG0.53
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate2.7%
Scored 2+ rate16.2%
Scored 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-3.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate2.5%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate19.3%
Trailing Win Rate18.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.02
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.32
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.64
Portability Score12.35
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO63.04
Current Opponent ELO-63.04
Current ELO Difference126.1
Expected score0.18
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Dallas

D
Sporting Kansas City1–1FC Dallas31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Dallas 62% · missed
L
FC Dallas0–2Columbus Crew29 Oct · home
Pick: FC Dallas 57% · missed
W
FC Dallas3–0San Jose Earthquakes25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Dallas 46% · hit
D
Houston Dynamo2–2FC Dallas18 Oct · away
Pick: Houston Dynamo 52% · missed
W
FC Dallas1–0Seattle Sounders15 Oct · home
Pick: FC Dallas 39% · hit

Colorado Rapids

L
Colorado Rapids2–4Chicago Fire1 Nov · home
Pick: Chicago Fire 42% · hit
D
San Jose Earthquakes2–2Colorado Rapids29 Oct · away
Pick: Colorado Rapids 39% · missed
D
Portland Timbers0–0Colorado Rapids18 Oct · away
Pick: Portland Timbers 42% · missed
D
Colorado Rapids2–2Minnesota United FC15 Oct · home
Pick: Colorado Rapids 46% · missed
W
Colorado Rapids1–0Real Salt Lake30 Aug · home
Pick: Colorado Rapids 43% · hit

About this match

FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids meet in Major League Soccer on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Toyota Stadium, Frisco. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Dallas win 40.4%, draw 25.6%, Colorado Rapids win 34.0%. The pick is FC Dallas win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 58.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.