ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris

FC Lugano Home · Elo 1,643
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kauno Žalgiris Away · Elo 1,655
AIL Arena, Lugano Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kauno Žalgiris win
FC Lugano win
31.3%
Draw
27.5%
Kauno Žalgiris winPick
41.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%

How much we know

FC Lugano history80 matches
Kauno Žalgiris history89 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kauno Žalgiris are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,643 against 1,655. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.68 goals a game over 80 matches for FC Lugano, against 1.80 over 89 for Kauno Žalgiris.

  • Kauno Žalgiris concede fewer

    FC Lugano concede 1.30 a game, Kauno Žalgiris 0.80.

  • Kauno Žalgiris games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of FC Lugano matches, against 58% for Kauno Žalgiris. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Lugano
Kauno Žalgiris
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1643.4
ELO
1655.3
80
ELO · Matches
89
1643.4
Current Team ELO
1655.3
1655.3
Current Opponent ELO
1643.4
-11.92
Current ELO Difference
11.92
0.48
Expected score
0.52
80
History Matches
89
0.09
Residual Mean
0.09
57.41
Overperformance
57.30
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.40
4.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.80
3.30
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.10
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
2.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.77
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
89
1.61
PPG
1.94
46.3%
Win rate
56.2%
22.5%
Draw rate
25.8%
31.3%
Loss rate
18.0%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.4%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
42
1.80
PPG
1.98
53.7%
Win rate
54.8%
19.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
26.8%
Loss rate
11.9%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
41
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.68
Goals for per game
1.80
82.5%
Scoring rate
77.5%
57.5%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.67
90.2%
Scoring rate
73.8%
63.4%
BTTS rate
47.6%
2.50
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
50.0%
BTTS rate
—
80
History Matches
89
1.68
Goals Mean
1.80
1.61
Goals Std
1.45
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.8%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
31.5%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
71.3%
Conceding rate
56.2%
1.34
Goals against per game
0.83
70.7%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.75
Goals against per game
—
50.0%
Conceding rate
—
80
History Matches
89
1.30
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.21
Conceded Std
0.89
36.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.1%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.2%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
0.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
89
0.96
Result entropy
0.89
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.86
3.90
Stability score
10.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
88
25
Lead Matches
42
76.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.90
19
Trailing Matches
10
36.8%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.27
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.25
Rest days
81.18
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
17
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.76
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
39
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.02
23
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
0
2.50
PPG
—
75.0%
Win rate
—
25.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
4
Current Competition Matches
0
2.50
Current Competition PPG
—
1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
12
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.94
Portability PPG Range
2.33
41.36
Portability Score
41.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
89
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-11.92
PPG-0.33
GF-0.12
GA0.50
PPG-0.17
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std1.40
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.50
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-6.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches4
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score-0.34
Rest days0.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO-11.92
Current Opponent ELO11.92
Current ELO Difference-23.84
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Lugano

W
FC Lugano2–1FC Basel 18931 Nov · home
Pick: FC Lugano 59% · hit
W
FC Thun2–3FC Lugano25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Lugano 57% · hit
W
Getafe2–5FC Lugano22 Oct · away
Pick: FC Lugano 47% · hit
W
Pully Football0–4FC Lugano18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Lugano 47% · hit
W
FC Lugano3–2FK Crvena Zvezda15 Oct · home
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 47% · missed

Kauno Žalgiris

W
Hegelmann Litauen1–4Kauno Žalgiris31 Oct · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 53% · hit
D
Kauno Žalgiris0–0FK Zalgiris Vilnius26 Oct · home
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 64% · missed
L
Kauno Žalgiris1–4Brann22 Oct · home
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 45% · missed
W
Suduva Marijampole0–1Kauno Žalgiris19 Oct · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 35% · hit
L
Brighton4–0Kauno Žalgiris15 Oct · away
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 49% · missed

About this match

FC Lugano and Kauno Žalgiris meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at AIL Arena, Lugano. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: FC Lugano win 31.3%, draw 27.5%, Kauno Žalgiris win 41.2%. The pick is Kauno Žalgiris win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.