ScoreProb
UEFA Europa Conference League World Round 3 2026

FC Thun vs Heart Of Midlothian

FC Thun Home · Elo 1,589
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Heart Of Midlothian Away · Elo 1,631
Stockhorn Arena, Thun Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Heart Of Midlothian win
FC Thun win
29.8%
Draw
24.0%
Heart Of Midlothian winPick
46.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%
No38.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

FC Thun history66 matches
Heart Of Midlothian history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Heart Of Midlothian are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Heart Of Midlothian are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,631 against 1,589. On rating alone Heart Of Midlothian would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • FC Thun score more

    2.08 goals a game over 66 matches for FC Thun, against 1.86 over 72 for Heart Of Midlothian.

  • Heart Of Midlothian concede fewer

    FC Thun concede 1.41 a game, Heart Of Midlothian 1.03.

  • FC Thun games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of FC Thun matches, against 58% for Heart Of Midlothian. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Thun
Heart Of Midlothian
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.8
ELO
1630.5
66
ELO · Matches
72
1588.8
Current Team ELO
1630.5
1630.5
Current Opponent ELO
1588.8
-41.71
Current ELO Difference
41.71
0.44
Expected score
0.56
66
History Matches
72
0.06
Residual Mean
0.09
54.79
Overperformance
57.11
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
2.60
2.60
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.79
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
72
1.86
PPG
1.94
57.6%
Win rate
58.3%
13.6%
Draw rate
19.4%
28.8%
Loss rate
22.2%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
71.2%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
43.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
35
2.03
PPG
1.57
62.5%
Win rate
45.7%
15.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
21.9%
Loss rate
34.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
71.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
32
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.08
Goals for per game
1.86
84.8%
Scoring rate
86.1%
65.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.28
Goals for per game
1.63
87.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
68.8%
BTTS rate
51.4%
66
History Matches
72
2.08
Goals Mean
1.86
1.50
Goals Std
1.35
84.8%
Scored 1+ rate
86.1%
63.6%
Scored 2+ rate
54.2%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
29.2%
2.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.41
Goals against per game
1.03
78.8%
Conceding rate
61.1%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.31
81.3%
Conceding rate
65.7%
66
History Matches
72
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.40
Conceded Std
1.18
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.6%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
72
0.86
Result entropy
0.88
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.96
13.71
Stability score
11.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
72
28
Lead Matches
28
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
96.4%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.96
16
Trailing Matches
18
37.5%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
27.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.16
Rest days
81.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.70
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.14
30
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
11
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.06
Portability PPG Range
0.93
50.95
Portability Score
60.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-41.71
PPG-0.08
GF0.21
GA0.38
PPG0.46
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate9.5%
Scored 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score1.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.18
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-9.77
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-41.71
Current Opponent ELO41.71
Current ELO Difference-83.42
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Thun

W
Lausanne4–5FC Thun1 Nov · away
Pick: Lausanne 59% · missed
L
FC Thun2–3FC Lugano25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Lugano 57% · hit
L
FC Thun0–1HNK Hajduk Split22 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 49% · hit
L
Twente1–0FC Thun15 Oct · away
Pick: Twente 53% · hit
W
FC ST. Gallen3–4FC Thun30 Aug · away
Pick: FC ST. Gallen 64% · missed

Heart Of Midlothian

L
Heart Of Midlothian1–2Hibernian1 Nov · home
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian 51% · missed
W
Motherwell0–2Heart Of Midlothian25 Oct · away
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian 45% · hit
L
Trabzonspor2–0Heart Of Midlothian22 Oct · away
Pick: Trabzonspor 37% · hit
L
Celtic7–1Heart Of Midlothian18 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic 66% · hit
D
Heart Of Midlothian1–1FC Nordsjaelland15 Oct · home
Pick: Heart Of Midlothian 51% · missed

About this match

FC Thun and Heart Of Midlothian meet in UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Stockhorn Arena, Thun. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: FC Thun win 29.8%, draw 24.0%, Heart Of Midlothian win 46.2%. The pick is Heart Of Midlothian win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 61.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.