ScoreProb
Super Liga Serbia Round 15 2026

FK Partizan vs Macva

FK Partizan Home · Elo 1,629
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Macva Away · Elo 1,562
Stadion Partizana, Belgrade Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FK Partizan win
FK Partizan winPick
62.8%
Draw
20.2%
Macva win
17.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.9%
No47.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

FK Partizan history80 matches
Macva history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,872 matches.

Why FK Partizan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FK Partizan are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,562. On rating alone FK Partizan would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • FK Partizan score far more

    1.88 goals a game over 80 matches for FK Partizan, against 1.10 over 72 for Macva.

  • Macva concede fewer

    FK Partizan concede 1.18 a game, Macva 1.01.

  • FK Partizan games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of FK Partizan matches, against 39% for Macva. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FK Partizan
Macva@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1628.9
ELO
1561.6
80
ELO · Matches
72
1628.9
Current Team ELO
1561.6
1561.6
Current Opponent ELO
1628.9
67.37
Current ELO Difference
-67.37
0.60
Expected score
0.40
80
History Matches
72
0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
55.69
Overperformance
53.65
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.10
2.10
Goals for per game
0.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
72
1.86
PPG
1.56
55.0%
Win rate
41.7%
21.3%
Draw rate
30.6%
23.8%
Loss rate
27.8%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.3%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
38.8%
Over 3.5 rate
18.1%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
34
2.05
PPG
0.97
62.2%
Win rate
17.6%
18.9%
Draw rate
44.1%
18.9%
Loss rate
38.2%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
32.4%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
37
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
1.10
78.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
52.5%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.97
Goals for per game
0.74
83.8%
Scoring rate
44.1%
51.4%
BTTS rate
32.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.67
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
80.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
80
History Matches
72
1.88
Goals Mean
1.10
1.51
Goals Std
0.99
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
55.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
31.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
0.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.01
65.0%
Conceding rate
61.1%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.26
56.8%
Conceding rate
64.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
80
History Matches
72
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.01
1.06
Conceded Std
1.10
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.4%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
55.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
55.9%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
72
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.60
9.03
Stability score
1.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
71
38
Lead Matches
18
86.8%
Lead Win Rate
94.4%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.96
19
Trailing Matches
16
31.6%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
47
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
0.80
PPG
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
5
Current Competition Matches
6
0.80
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
9
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.33
2.20
Portability PPG Range
0.89
42.67
Portability Score
60.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO67.37
PPG0.31
GF0.78
GA0.16
PPG-0.20
PPG1.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.78
Goals Std0.52
Scored 1+ rate12.1%
Scored 2+ rate21.7%
Scored 3+ rate22.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score7.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches20
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate12.8%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.93
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range1.31
Portability Score-17.93
Rest days-1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO67.37
Current Opponent ELO-67.37
Current ELO Difference134.7
Expected score0.19
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance2.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FK Partizan

W
Budučnost Krušik1–5FK Partizan4 Nov · away
Pick: FK Partizan 55% · hit
W
FK Partizan3–0Zemun1 Nov · home
Pick: FK Partizan 66% · hit
L
FK Partizan0–2Cukaricki24 Oct · home
Pick: FK Partizan 52% · missed
W
FK Partizan3–1OFK Beograd31 Aug · home
Pick: FK Partizan 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Macva

W
Macva2–0Napredak27 Oct · home
Pick: Macva 49% · hit
D
Novi Pazar1–1Macva29 Aug · away
Pick: Novi Pazar 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FK Partizan and Macva meet in Super Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Partizana, Belgrade. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FK Partizan win 62.8%, draw 20.2%, Macva win 17.0%. The pick is FK Partizan win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.