ScoreProb
Super Liga Serbia Round 15 2026

Radnik Surdulica vs OFK Beograd

Radnik Surdulica Home · Elo 1,542
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
OFK Beograd Away · Elo 1,500
EFBET Stadion, Surdulica Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Radnik Surdulica win
Radnik Surdulica winPick
51.1%
Draw
22.3%
OFK Beograd win
26.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%

How much we know

Radnik Surdulica history64 matches
OFK Beograd history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Radnik Surdulica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Radnik Surdulica are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,542 against 1,500. On rating alone Radnik Surdulica would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.41 goals a game over 64 matches for Radnik Surdulica, against 1.31 over 70 for OFK Beograd.

  • Radnik Surdulica concede fewer

    Radnik Surdulica concede 1.14 a game, OFK Beograd 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Radnik Surdulica matches, against 53% for OFK Beograd. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Radnik Surdulica
OFK Beograd@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1542.4
ELO
1500.3
64
ELO · Matches
70
1542.4
Current Team ELO
1500.3
1500.3
Current Opponent ELO
1542.4
42.15
Current ELO Difference
-42.15
0.56
Expected score
0.44
64
History Matches
70
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
52.67
Overperformance
49.81
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
0.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.90
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.86
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
70
1.56
PPG
1.21
43.8%
Win rate
31.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
27.1%
31.3%
Loss rate
41.4%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
37
1.91
PPG
1.32
57.6%
Win rate
35.1%
18.2%
Draw rate
27.0%
24.2%
Loss rate
37.8%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.5%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
33
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.31
73.4%
Scoring rate
70.0%
45.3%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.46
81.8%
Scoring rate
75.7%
45.5%
BTTS rate
67.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.17
80.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
64
History Matches
70
1.41
Goals Mean
1.31
1.10
Goals Std
1.19
73.4%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
48.4%
Scored 2+ rate
38.6%
15.6%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.51
60.9%
Conceding rate
74.3%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.81
54.5%
Conceding rate
86.5%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
70
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.27
Conceded Std
1.41
29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
70
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.83
2.45
Stability score
1.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
70
25
Lead Matches
14
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.90
16
Trailing Matches
17
25.0%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
38
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
24
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
1.60
PPG
1.33
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
40.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
5
Current Competition Matches
6
1.60
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.19
1.26
Portability PPG Range
0.46
51.34
Portability Score
72.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO42.15
PPG0.35
GF0.09
GA-0.37
PPG0.27
PPG0.58
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate31.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate3.4%
Scored 2+ rate9.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.62
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.80
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score1.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.32
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate7.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.53
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.80
Portability Score-21.62
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match2.75
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO42.15
Current Opponent ELO-42.15
Current ELO Difference84.30
Expected score0.12
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Radnik Surdulica

W
Mladost Lucani0–1Radnik Surdulica2 Nov · away
Pick: Mladost Lucani 39% · missed
W
Borac Cacak1–2Radnik Surdulica28 Oct · away
Pick: Borac Cacak 38% · missed
W
Radnik Surdulica3–0Radnicki NIS16 Oct · home
Pick: Radnik Surdulica 50% · hit
L
Železničar Pančevo5–1Radnik Surdulica29 Aug · away
Pick: Železničar Pančevo 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

OFK Beograd

L
OFK Beograd0–2Vojvodina1 Nov · home
Pick: Vojvodina 48% · hit
W
OFK Vršac0–1OFK Beograd28 Oct · away
Pick: OFK Beograd 39% · hit
D
Mladost Lucani0–0OFK Beograd12 Oct · away
Pick: Mladost Lucani 47% · missed
L
FK Partizan3–1OFK Beograd31 Aug · away
Pick: FK Partizan 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Radnik Surdulica and OFK Beograd meet in Super Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at EFBET Stadion, Surdulica. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Radnik Surdulica win 51.1%, draw 22.3%, OFK Beograd win 26.6%. The pick is Radnik Surdulica win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.7%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.