ScoreProb
Super Liga Serbia Round 15 2026

Zemun vs IMT Novi Beograd

Zemun Home · Elo 1,541
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
IMT Novi Beograd Away · Elo 1,507
Zemun Stadium, Belgrade Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: IMT Novi Beograd win
Zemun win
30.7%
Draw
24.2%
IMT Novi Beograd winPick
45.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.8%
Under 2.552.2%

How much we know

Zemun history63 matches
IMT Novi Beograd history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why IMT Novi Beograd are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zemun are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,507. On rating alone Zemun would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Zemun score more

    1.44 goals a game over 63 matches for Zemun, against 1.13 over 72 for IMT Novi Beograd.

  • Zemun concede fewer

    Zemun concede 1.14 a game, IMT Novi Beograd 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Zemun matches, against 43% for IMT Novi Beograd. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zemun
IMT Novi Beograd@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1540.6
ELO
1507.0
63
ELO · Matches
72
1540.6
Current Team ELO
1507.0
1507.0
Current Opponent ELO
1540.6
33.60
Current ELO Difference
-33.60
0.55
Expected score
0.45
63
History Matches
72
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
52.32
Overperformance
50.43
-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.80
0.00
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
0.80
Goals for per game
0.90
1.60
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
72
1.70
PPG
1.33
46.0%
Win rate
36.1%
31.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
38.9%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
36
1.91
PPG
1.31
53.1%
Win rate
36.1%
31.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
15.6%
Loss rate
41.7%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
32
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.13
81.0%
Scoring rate
76.4%
55.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.11
90.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
68.8%
BTTS rate
55.6%
0.33
Goals for per game
1.33
16.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
16.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
63
History Matches
72
1.44
Goals Mean
1.13
1.04
Goals Std
0.91
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
46.0%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
9.7%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.35
68.3%
Conceding rate
65.3%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.56
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
72
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.11
Conceded Std
1.44
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
83.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
72
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.43
Goal Difference Std
1.78
3.91
Stability score
1.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
71
19
Lead Matches
17
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.80
15
Trailing Matches
24
46.7%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
45
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
17
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
0.17
PPG
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
83.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
6
Current Competition Matches
6
0.17
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.70
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.83
Portability PPG Range
1.22
41.55
Portability Score
50.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO33.60
PPG0.37
GF0.32
GA-0.20
PPG-1.50
PPG0.60
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate4.6%
Scored 2+ rate21.0%
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score2.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate25.8%
Trailing Win Rate15.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.61
Portability Score-8.61
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO33.60
Current Opponent ELO-33.60
Current ELO Difference67.19
Expected score0.10
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zemun

L
FK Partizan3–0Zemun1 Nov · away
Pick: FK Partizan 66% · hit
L
Zemun0–2FK Crvena Zvezda30 Aug · home
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

IMT Novi Beograd

D
IMT Novi Beograd0–0Cukaricki1 Nov · home
Pick: IMT Novi Beograd 44% · missed
L
Grafičar2–0IMT Novi Beograd28 Oct · away
Pick: Grafičar 40% · hit
W
IMT Novi Beograd2–0Mladost Lucani30 Aug · home
Pick: IMT Novi Beograd 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zemun and IMT Novi Beograd meet in Super Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Zemun Stadium, Belgrade. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Zemun win 30.7%, draw 24.2%, IMT Novi Beograd win 45.1%. The pick is IMT Novi Beograd win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.8%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.