ScoreProb
Super Liga Serbia Round 15 2026

Železničar Pančevo vs Radnicki 1923

Železničar Pančevo Home · Elo 1,536
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Radnicki 1923 Away · Elo 1,528
Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Železničar Pančevo win
Železničar Pančevo winPick
37.6%
Draw
26.1%
Radnicki 1923 win
36.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.4%
Under 2.552.6%

How much we know

Železničar Pančevo history70 matches
Radnicki 1923 history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Železničar Pančevo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,536 against 1,528. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.27 goals a game over 70 matches for Železničar Pančevo, against 1.24 over 71 for Radnicki 1923.

  • Železničar Pančevo concede fewer

    Železničar Pančevo concede 1.09 a game, Radnicki 1923 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Železničar Pančevo matches, against 44% for Radnicki 1923. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Železničar Pančevo
Radnicki 1923@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.4
ELO
1527.6
70
ELO · Matches
71
1536.4
Current Team ELO
1527.6
1527.6
Current Opponent ELO
1536.4
8.78
Current ELO Difference
-8.78
0.51
Expected score
0.49
70
History Matches
71
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.41
Overperformance
52.11
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.90
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
71
1.46
PPG
1.32
38.6%
Win rate
32.4%
30.0%
Draw rate
35.2%
31.4%
Loss rate
32.4%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
45.7%
Over 2.5 rate
43.7%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
33
1.65
PPG
0.88
45.9%
Win rate
15.2%
27.0%
Draw rate
42.4%
27.0%
Loss rate
42.4%
62.2%
Over 1.5 rate
57.6%
37.8%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
16.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
37
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.24
72.9%
Scoring rate
66.2%
47.1%
BTTS rate
46.5%
1.27
Goals for per game
0.82
75.7%
Scoring rate
54.5%
35.1%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
50.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
70
History Matches
71
1.27
Goals Mean
1.24
1.13
Goals Std
1.20
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.2%
34.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.2%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.09
Goals against per game
1.24
62.9%
Conceding rate
64.8%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.45
48.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
70
History Matches
71
1.09
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.22
Conceded Std
1.24
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.1%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.2%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
51.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.2%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
51.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
71
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.65
0.56
Stability score
0.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
71
21
Lead Matches
23
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
65.2%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.72
16
Trailing Matches
17
25.0%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.92
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
40
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
25
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
1.25
PPG
1.80
25.0%
Win rate
60.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
4
Current Competition Matches
5
1.25
Current Competition PPG
1.80
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.34
Portability PPG Range
0.78
80.21
Portability Score
60.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO8.78
PPG0.13
GF0.03
GA-0.15
PPG-0.55
PPG0.77
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate18.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate6.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score0.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate15.7%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score20.06
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO8.78
Current Opponent ELO-8.78
Current ELO Difference17.56
Expected score0.03
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Železničar Pančevo

W
Železničar Pančevo5–1Radnik Surdulica29 Aug · home
Pick: Železničar Pančevo 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Radnicki 1923

W
Radnicki 19232–0Novi Pazar1 Nov · home
Pick: Radnicki 1923 51% · hit
D
Radnicki NIS1–1Radnicki 192329 Aug · away
Pick: Radnicki 1923 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Železničar Pančevo and Radnicki 1923 meet in Super Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Sportsko-Rekreativni Centar Mladost. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Železničar Pančevo win 37.6%, draw 26.1%, Radnicki 1923 win 36.2%. The pick is Železničar Pančevo win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.4%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.