ScoreProb
Super Liga Serbia Round 15 2026

Novi Pazar vs Mladost Lucani

Novi Pazar Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mladost Lucani Away · Elo 1,527
Gradski Stadion, Novi Pazar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Novi Pazar win
Novi Pazar winPick
40.8%
Draw
26.5%
Mladost Lucani win
32.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%

How much we know

Novi Pazar history71 matches
Mladost Lucani history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Novi Pazar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,516 against 1,527. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Novi Pazar score more

    1.31 goals a game over 71 matches for Novi Pazar, against 0.92 over 66 for Mladost Lucani.

  • Mladost Lucani concede fewer

    Novi Pazar concede 1.45 a game, Mladost Lucani 1.30.

  • Novi Pazar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Novi Pazar matches, against 36% for Mladost Lucani. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Novi Pazar
Mladost Lucani@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.3
ELO
1526.7
71
ELO · Matches
66
1516.3
Current Team ELO
1526.7
1526.7
Current Opponent ELO
1516.3
-10.44
Current ELO Difference
10.44
0.48
Expected score
0.52
71
History Matches
66
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
51.00
Overperformance
50.78
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.90
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
66
1.42
PPG
1.20
39.4%
Win rate
25.8%
23.9%
Draw rate
42.4%
36.6%
Loss rate
31.8%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
49.3%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
37
1.64
PPG
0.92
47.2%
Win rate
16.2%
22.2%
Draw rate
43.2%
30.6%
Loss rate
40.5%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
35.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
36
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
0.92
76.1%
Scoring rate
62.1%
54.9%
BTTS rate
51.5%
1.56
Goals for per game
0.76
91.7%
Scoring rate
54.1%
63.9%
BTTS rate
48.6%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.17
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
16.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
66
1.31
Goals Mean
0.92
1.00
Goals Std
0.97
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
62.1%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
19.7%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
7.6%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.30
73.2%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.46
72.2%
Conceding rate
78.4%
1.17
Goals against per game
0.67
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
66
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.26
Conceded Std
1.28
45.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.7%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
45.9%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
66
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.67
1.96
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
66
18
Lead Matches
17
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.80
24
Trailing Matches
19
29.2%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
75.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
43
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
24
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
66.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
16.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.76
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.83
Portability PPG Range
0.78
63.41
Portability Score
63.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-10.44
PPG0.23
GF0.39
GA0.15
PPG-0.50
PPG0.72
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate13.9%
Scored 2+ rate21.1%
Scored 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate17.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.54
History Matches5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score0.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate18.3%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate8.1%
Trailing Win Rate3.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-0.38
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO-10.44
Current Opponent ELO10.44
Current ELO Difference-20.88
Expected score-0.03
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Novi Pazar

L
Radnicki 19232–0Novi Pazar1 Nov · away
Pick: Radnicki 1923 51% · hit
W
FK Vozdovac1–3Novi Pazar28 Oct · away
Pick: Novi Pazar 40% · hit
D
Novi Pazar1–1Macva29 Aug · home
Pick: Novi Pazar 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mladost Lucani

L
Mladost Lucani0–1Radnik Surdulica2 Nov · home
Pick: Mladost Lucani 39% · missed
D
Mladost Lucani1–1Vojvodina24 Oct · home
Pick: Mladost Lucani 38% · missed
D
Mladost Lucani0–0OFK Beograd12 Oct · home
Pick: Mladost Lucani 47% · missed
L
IMT Novi Beograd2–0Mladost Lucani30 Aug · away
Pick: IMT Novi Beograd 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Novi Pazar and Mladost Lucani meet in Super Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Gradski Stadion, Novi Pazar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Novi Pazar win 40.8%, draw 26.5%, Mladost Lucani win 32.7%. The pick is Novi Pazar win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.8%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.