Francs Borains vs Dender
What we said before kickoff Result: Francs Borains win
Francs Borains win Result
34.3%
Draw
23.9%
Dender winPick
41.8%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickDender win · 41.8%
What happenedFrancs Borains win · we gave it 34.3%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 55.0%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 53.6%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Francs Borains win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
34%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.9
on average A pick at 42% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
10'
Yellow cardChristopher Jullien
23'
VARPenalty cancelled · Emmanuel Mballa Amougou
Yellow cardRaymond Asante
35' 39'
Yellow cardBo De Kerf
GoalMaxime Bastian · assist Dieumerci Ndongala
49' 63'
SubstitutionNathan Rodes off · Krzysztof Koton on
63'
SubstitutionJunior Sambu Mansoni off · Oskar Szulc on
63'
SubstitutionGerard Vandeplas off · Amine Daali on
SubstitutionDieumerci Ndongala off · philipp wydra on
68' SubstitutionKeres Masangu off · Yannis Kari on
73' SubstitutionRaymond Asante off · Enzo Faty on
73' SubstitutionAboubacar Ali off · Noah Diliberto on
85' SubstitutionEnguerran Faucon off · Levi Malungu on
85' 85'
SubstitutionAdam Nhaili off · Pjotr Kestens on
85'
SubstitutionBo De Kerf off · David Tosevski on
Lineups
Francs Borains 4-2-3-1 · Dender 3-4-2-1
20Swinnen 78Monticelli 24Dessoleil 77Molle 28Francotte 16Faucon 8Masangu 29Bastian 12Asante 11Ndongala 10Ali 16Devriendt 6Kerf 2Jullien 22Breugelmans 23Expérience 24Viltard 18Rôdes 70Sambu 53Nhaili 14Vandeplas 7Amougou
Substitutes · Francs Borains · Coach Y. Vanderhaeghe
- 7P. Wydra
- 1N. Jauny
- 19E. Faty
- 33N. Diliberto
- 17Y. kari
- 23L. Malungu
- 6R. Mateta
- 47S. Ndime
- 27N. Wasbauer
Substitutes · Dender · Coach J. Silva
- 11K. Diliwidi
- 1L. Fortin
- 12Pedro Gomes
- 17P. Kestens
- 15K. Koton
- 13M. Nkurunziza
- 8O. Szulc
- 9D. Toševski
- 21K. Cools
- 60Oumar Balde
Match stats
Francs Borains left, Dender right
Both teams to score
Yes53.6%
No46.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%
How much we know
Francs Borains history55 matches
Dender history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 11 h ahead2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
- Kickoff4 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–0None of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Dender are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Francs Borains are rated 77 Elo points higher
Elo 1,478 against 1,401. On rating alone Francs Borains would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Francs Borains score more
1.31 goals a game over 55 matches for Francs Borains, against 1.09 over 64 for Dender.
-
Francs Borains concede fewer
Francs Borains concede 1.55 a game, Dender 1.81.
-
Dender games more often go over 2.5 goals
51% of Francs Borains matches, against 59% for Dender. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dender@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1477.7
ELO
1400.6
55
ELO · Matches
64
1477.7
Current Team ELO
1400.6
1400.6
Current Opponent ELO
1477.7
77.09
Current ELO Difference
-77.09
0.61
Expected score
0.39
55
History Matches
64
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.08
48.02
Overperformance
44.10
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.70
2.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.60
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
2.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
3.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
64
1.15
PPG
0.83
32.7%
Win rate
18.8%
16.4%
Draw rate
26.6%
50.9%
Loss rate
54.7%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.4%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
33
1.40
PPG
0.58
40.0%
Win rate
12.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
21.2%
40.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
25
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.09
65.5%
Scoring rate
65.6%
43.6%
BTTS rate
57.8%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.03
64.0%
Scoring rate
63.6%
36.0%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
55
History Matches
64
1.31
Goals Mean
1.09
1.49
Goals Std
1.13
65.5%
Scored 1+ rate
65.6%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
29.7%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.81
72.7%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.24
Goals against per game
2.09
60.0%
Conceding rate
87.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
64
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.81
1.28
Conceded Std
1.38
47.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.7%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.6%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
2.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
64
0.92
Result entropy
0.91
2.11
Goal Difference Std
1.73
8.48
Stability score
9.33
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
53
Eligible Matches
64
9
Lead Matches
13
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.64
22
Trailing Matches
23
13.6%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
73.07
Rest days
74.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.64
22
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.53
Portability PPG Range
0.65
66.57
Portability Score
65.36
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO77.09
PPG0.32
GF0.22
GA-0.27
PPG0.00
PPG0.82
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.2%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate27.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate4.9%
Scored 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.58
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-9
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-0.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.38
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate23.9%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score1.21
Rest days-1.14
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO77.09
Current Opponent ELO-77.09
Current ELO Difference154.2
Expected score0.22
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Francs Borains
L
Beerschot VA3–0Francs Borains31 Oct · away
Pick: Beerschot VA 60% · hit L
OH Leuven1–0Francs Borains17 Oct · away
Pick: OH Leuven 45% · hit W
Excelsior Virton0–1Francs Borains30 Aug · away
Pick: Excelsior Virton 65% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Dender
D
Dender1–1KRC Genk II1 Nov · home
Pick: Dender 59% · missed L
Standard Liege2–0Dender16 Oct · away
Pick: Standard Liege 51% · hit W
Liège1–2Dender29 Aug · away
Pick: Liège 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Francs Borains and Dender finished 1–0 in Challenger Pro League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff: Francs Borains win 34.3%, draw 23.9%, Dender win 41.8%. None of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.