ScoreProb
Challenger Pro League Belgium Round 10 2026

KRC Genk II vs KAA Gent II

KRC Genk II Home · Elo 1,475
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
KAA Gent II Away · Elo 1,496
Cegeka Arena, Genk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: KRC Genk II win
KRC Genk II winPick
55.5%
Draw
18.8%
KAA Gent II win
25.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%

How much we know

KRC Genk II history56 matches
KAA Gent II history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why KRC Genk II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,475 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.55 goals a game over 56 matches for KRC Genk II, against 1.50 over 50 for KAA Gent II.

  • KAA Gent II concede fewer

    KRC Genk II concede 1.91 a game, KAA Gent II 1.36.

  • KRC Genk II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of KRC Genk II matches, against 54% for KAA Gent II. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
KRC Genk II
KAA Gent II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.1
ELO
1496.0
56
ELO · Matches
50
1475.1
Current Team ELO
1496.0
1496.0
Current Opponent ELO
1475.1
-20.85
Current ELO Difference
20.85
0.47
Expected score
0.53
56
History Matches
50
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.93
Overperformance
49.30
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.10
3.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
50
1.00
PPG
1.56
25.0%
Win rate
48.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
12.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
48.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
1.08
PPG
1.35
28.0%
Win rate
42.3%
24.0%
Draw rate
7.7%
48.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
52.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.55
Goals for per game
1.50
69.6%
Scoring rate
70.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.46
72.0%
Scoring rate
61.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
56
History Matches
50
1.55
Goals Mean
1.50
1.61
Goals Std
1.28
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
48.0%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.91
Goals against per game
1.36
83.9%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.76
Goals against per game
1.58
76.0%
Conceding rate
80.8%
3.50
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
50
1.91
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.26
Conceded Std
1.26
64.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.0%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
50
0.95
Result entropy
0.89
2.10
Goal Difference Std
2.03
5.36
Stability score
11.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
49
10
Lead Matches
16
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.83
22
Trailing Matches
13
9.1%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.27
Rest days
82.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.29
24
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-4.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.87
Portability PPG Std
0.46
2.12
Portability PPG Range
1.10
36.38
Portability Score
52.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-20.85
PPG-0.56
GF0.05
GA0.55
PPG0.00
PPG-0.27
PPG0.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.55
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate26.3%
Conceded 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches6
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-6.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.42
Portability PPG Range1.01
Portability Score-15.85
Rest days-8.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.71
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Current Team ELO-20.85
Current Opponent ELO20.85
Current ELO Difference-41.70
Expected score-0.06
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

KRC Genk II

D
Dender1–1KRC Genk II1 Nov · away
Pick: Dender 59% · missed
D
KRC Genk II0–0Club Brugge II24 Oct · home
Pick: Club Brugge II 45% · missed
W
KRC Genk II6–0MVV25 Aug · home
Pick: KRC Genk II 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

KAA Gent II

W
KAA Gent II2–0K. Lierse S.K.30 Oct · home
Pick: K. Lierse S.K. 48% · missed
L
Lokeren-Temse2–0KAA Gent II24 Oct · away
Pick: Lokeren-Temse 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

KRC Genk II and KAA Gent II meet in Challenger Pro League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Cegeka Arena, Genk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: KRC Genk II win 55.5%, draw 18.8%, KAA Gent II win 25.7%. The pick is KRC Genk II win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.0%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.