ScoreProb
Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis

Gemert Home · Elo 1,564
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Excelsior Maassluis Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Excelsior Maassluis win
Gemert win
35.7%
Draw
26.3%
Excelsior Maassluis winPick
37.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.0%
No41.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.2%
Under 2.538.8%

How much we know

Gemert history56 matches
Excelsior Maassluis history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Excelsior Maassluis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gemert are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,505. On rating alone Gemert would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Gemert score more

    2.07 goals a game over 56 matches for Gemert, against 1.40 over 65 for Excelsior Maassluis.

  • Defences are close

    Gemert concede 1.38 a game, Excelsior Maassluis 1.43.

  • Gemert games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Gemert matches, against 51% for Excelsior Maassluis. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gemert
Excelsior Maassluis
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1564.1
ELO
1504.9
56
ELO · Matches
65
1564.1
Current Team ELO
1504.9
1504.9
Current Opponent ELO
1564.1
59.16
Current ELO Difference
-59.16
0.58
Expected score
0.42
56
History Matches
65
0.06
Residual Mean
0.01
54.20
Overperformance
50.44
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.70
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
65
1.82
PPG
1.32
50.0%
Win rate
36.9%
32.1%
Draw rate
21.5%
17.9%
Loss rate
41.5%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
48.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
32
1.72
PPG
0.94
44.8%
Win rate
21.9%
37.9%
Draw rate
28.1%
17.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
29
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.07
Goals for per game
1.40
85.7%
Scoring rate
70.8%
66.1%
BTTS rate
47.7%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.22
82.8%
Scoring rate
68.8%
65.5%
BTTS rate
56.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
65
2.07
Goals Mean
1.40
1.40
Goals Std
1.32
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
36.9%
39.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.43
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.75
75.9%
Conceding rate
84.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
65
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.19
Conceded Std
1.42
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
65
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
1.65
Goal Difference Std
2.16
7.24
Stability score
3.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
62
22
Lead Matches
20
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.90
10
Trailing Matches
19
60.0%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.25
Rest days
77.23
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.76
0.22
Portability PPG Range
1.98
84.56
Portability Score
39.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO59.16
PPG0.50
GF0.67
GA-0.06
PPG-1.00
PPG0.79
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate14.9%
Scored 2+ rate25.6%
Scored 3+ rate19.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.48
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.51
Stability score4.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate1.4%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate44.2%
Trailing Win Rate4.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.67
Portability PPG Range-1.76
Portability Score45.00
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO59.16
Current Opponent ELO-59.16
Current ELO Difference118.3
Expected score0.17
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gemert

W
Gemert2–0Achilles Veen17 Oct · home
Pick: Gemert 78% · hit
L
Gemert0–2FC Lisse4 Oct · home
Pick: FC Lisse 42% · hit
L
Dongen3–2Gemert30 Aug · away
Pick: Dongen 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Excelsior Maassluis

L
Excelsior Maassluis0–2Heerenveen28 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 48% · missed
W
Excelsior Maassluis1–0EVV24 Oct · home
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 78% · hit
W
Zwaluwen0–2Excelsior Maassluis17 Oct · away
Pick: Excelsior Maassluis 56% · hit
L
FC Lisse1–0Excelsior Maassluis29 Aug · away
Pick: FC Lisse 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gemert and Excelsior Maassluis meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gemert win 35.7%, draw 26.3%, Excelsior Maassluis win 37.9%. The pick is Excelsior Maassluis win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.2%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.