ScoreProb
U19 league Türkiye Round 11 2026

Goztepe U19 vs İstanbul Başakşehir U19

Goztepe U19 Home · Elo 1,480
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
İstanbul Başakşehir U19 Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: İstanbul Başakşehir U19 win
Goztepe U19 win
39.0%
Draw
17.8%
İstanbul Başakşehir U19 winPick
43.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.6%
Under 2.530.4%

How much we know

Goztepe U19 history2 matches
İstanbul Başakşehir U19 history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why İstanbul Başakşehir U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,480 against 1,490. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • İstanbul Başakşehir U19 score far more

    0.50 goals a game over 2 matches for Goztepe U19, against 1.00 over 2 for İstanbul Başakşehir U19.

  • Defences are close

    Goztepe U19 concede 3.50 a game, İstanbul Başakşehir U19 3.50.

  • İstanbul Başakşehir U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Goztepe U19 matches, against 100% for İstanbul Başakşehir U19. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Goztepe U19
İstanbul Başakşehir U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1480.2
ELO
1490.2
2
ELO · Matches
2
1480.2
Current Team ELO
1490.2
1490.2
Current Opponent ELO
1480.2
-9.94
Current ELO Difference
9.94
0.49
Expected score
0.51
2
History Matches
2
-0.49
Residual Mean
-0.25
45.51
Overperformance
47.77
-0.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
3.50
Goals against per game
3.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
3.50
Goals against per game
3.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
3.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2
History Matches
2
0.50
Goals Mean
1.00
0.50
Goals Std
1.00
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.50
Goals against per game
3.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
5.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3.50
Goals against per game
3.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
2
3.50
Conceded Mean
3.50
1.50
Conceded Std
1.50
100.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
5.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
2
0.00
Result entropy
0.63
1.00
Goal Difference Std
2.50
100.0
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
2
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.33
2
Trailing Matches
1
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
2.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.00
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
75.92
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
0
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
1
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-9.94
PPG-0.50
GF-0.50
GA0.00
PPG-0.50
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.50
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.50
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.63
Goal Difference Std-1.50
Stability score63.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.50
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches0
Current Team ELO-9.94
Current Opponent ELO9.94
Current ELO Difference-19.88
Expected score-0.03
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.25
Overperformance-2.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Goztepe U19

L
Goztepe U191–2AZ U193 Nov · home
Pick: AZ U19 67% · hit
L
AZ U193–1Goztepe U1927 Oct · away
Pick: AZ U19 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

İstanbul Başakşehir U19

W
İstanbul Başakşehir U191–0Gaziantep U1918 Oct · home
Pick: İstanbul Başakşehir U19 67% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Goztepe U19 and İstanbul Başakşehir U19 meet in U19 league on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Goztepe U19 win 39.0%, draw 17.8%, İstanbul Başakşehir U19 win 43.2%. The pick is İstanbul Başakşehir U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.6%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.