Grbalj vs Kom
What we said before kickoff Result: Kom win
Grbalj winPick
57.6%
Draw
23.6%
Kom win Result
18.7%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickGrbalj win · 57.6%
What happenedKom win · we gave it 18.7%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 55.6%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 52.7%
What happenedNo · 0–1
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Kom win. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
19%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 5.3
on average A pick at 58% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes52.7%
No47.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%
How much we know
Grbalj history58 matches
Kom history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–1None of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Grbalj are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Grbalj are rated 82 Elo points higher
Elo 1,529 against 1,447. On rating alone Grbalj would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Grbalj score more
1.50 goals a game over 58 matches for Grbalj, against 1.31 over 55 for Kom.
-
Defences are close
Grbalj concede 1.28 a game, Kom 1.40.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
45% of Grbalj matches, against 51% for Kom. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1529.3
ELO
1447.3
58
ELO · Matches
55
1529.3
Current Team ELO
1447.3
1447.3
Current Opponent ELO
1529.3
82.02
Current ELO Difference
-82.02
0.62
Expected score
0.38
58
History Matches
55
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.56
Overperformance
46.61
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.33
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.40
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
55
1.52
PPG
1.27
41.4%
Win rate
36.4%
27.6%
Draw rate
18.2%
31.0%
Loss rate
45.5%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.9%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
27
2.00
PPG
0.89
57.1%
Win rate
25.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
11.1%
14.3%
Loss rate
63.0%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.31
81.0%
Scoring rate
69.1%
62.1%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.89
Goals for per game
1.30
89.3%
Scoring rate
70.4%
64.3%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
55
1.50
Goals Mean
1.31
1.09
Goals Std
1.26
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.1%
46.6%
Scored 2+ rate
34.5%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.40
79.3%
Conceding rate
65.5%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.93
75.0%
Conceding rate
81.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
55
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.05
Conceded Std
1.54
32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.59
Goal Difference Std
2.13
1.37
Stability score
5.68
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
58
Eligible Matches
55
18
Lead Matches
14
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.93
20
Trailing Matches
17
40.0%
Non-loss rate
5.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
72.75
Rest days
72.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
43
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
14
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.93
Portability PPG Range
0.12
51.87
Portability Score
89.11
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO82.02
PPG0.24
GF0.19
GA-0.12
PPG2.00
PPG1.11
PPG1.40
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate11.9%
Scored 2+ rate12.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.55
Stability score-4.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate34.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range0.81
Portability Score-37.24
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO82.02
Current Opponent ELO-82.02
Current ELO Difference164.0
Expected score0.23
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Grbalj
L
Zeta1–0Grbalj4 Oct · away
Pick: Zeta 38% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Kom
W
Kom2–1Lovćen25 Oct · home
Pick: Lovćen 42% · missed L
Petrovac2–0Kom15 Oct · away
Pick: Petrovac 57% · hit D
Mogren1–1Kom4 Oct · away
Pick: Mogren 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Grbalj and Kom finished 0–1 in Second League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff: Grbalj win 57.6%, draw 23.6%, Kom win 18.7%. None of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.