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Regionalliga - Nord Germany North - 18 2026

Hamburger SV II vs Kickers Emden

Hamburger SV II Home · Elo 1,468
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kickers Emden Away · Elo 1,517
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kickers Emden win
Hamburger SV II win
38.0%
Draw
20.3%
Kickers Emden winPick
41.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.9%
No34.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.8%
Under 2.523.2%

How much we know

Hamburger SV II history60 matches
Kickers Emden history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Kickers Emden are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kickers Emden are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,517 against 1,468. On rating alone Kickers Emden would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Kickers Emden score more

    1.72 goals a game over 60 matches for Hamburger SV II, against 1.98 over 60 for Kickers Emden.

  • Defences are close

    Hamburger SV II concede 1.90 a game, Kickers Emden 1.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Hamburger SV II matches, against 68% for Kickers Emden. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hamburger SV II
Kickers Emden@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.7
ELO
1516.9
60
ELO · Matches
60
1467.7
Current Team ELO
1516.9
1516.9
Current Opponent ELO
1467.7
-49.11
Current ELO Difference
49.11
0.43
Expected score
0.57
60
History Matches
60
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.22
Overperformance
50.72
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
2.80
Goals against per game
3.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.10
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
2.40
Goals against per game
3.10
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.10
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
60
1.22
PPG
1.53
31.7%
Win rate
45.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
18.3%
41.7%
Loss rate
36.7%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.3%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.3%
51.7%
Over 3.5 rate
55.0%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
31
1.26
PPG
1.71
32.3%
Win rate
48.4%
29.0%
Draw rate
25.8%
38.7%
Loss rate
25.8%
93.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.3%
80.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
67.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
31
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.98
78.3%
Scoring rate
90.0%
65.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
2.10
Goals for per game
1.94
80.6%
Scoring rate
90.3%
74.2%
BTTS rate
67.7%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
60
1.72
Goals Mean
1.98
1.54
Goals Std
1.44
78.3%
Scored 1+ rate
90.0%
45.0%
Scored 2+ rate
53.3%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
30.0%
2.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.90
Goals against per game
1.75
81.7%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.03
Goals against per game
1.61
90.3%
Conceding rate
77.4%
2.75
Goals against per game
3.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
60
1.90
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.46
Conceded Std
1.37
55.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.7%
30.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
2.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
9.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
9.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
18.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
60
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
2.15
Goal Difference Std
2.05
1.57
Stability score
5.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
58
17
Lead Matches
21
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
61.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.70
17
Trailing Matches
17
17.6%
Non-loss rate
47.1%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.79
Rest days
90.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
30
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
27
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.16
Portability PPG Range
1.40
51.77
Portability Score
47.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-49.11
PPG-0.32
GF-0.27
GA0.15
PPG-0.75
PPG-0.45
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate9.7%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches0
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score-3.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate14.6%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score4.28
Rest days-6.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match2.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Current Team ELO-49.11
Current Opponent ELO49.11
Current ELO Difference-98.21
Expected score-0.14
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hamburger SV II

W
Hamburger SV II4–2Hannover 96 II1 Nov · home
Pick: Hannover 96 II 50% · missed
W
Werder Bremen II1–4Hamburger SV II28 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen II 51% · missed
L
Bremer SV4–1Hamburger SV II25 Oct · away
Pick: Bremer SV 52% · hit
L
Hamburger SV II1–2VfB Oldenburg18 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 67% · hit
L
Hamburger SV II0–2Eintracht Norderstedt30 Aug · home
Pick: Eintracht Norderstedt 43% · hit

Kickers Emden

D
Kickers Emden1–1VfB Lübeck6 Nov · home
Pick: Kickers Emden 39% · missed
D
Weiche Flensburg1–1Kickers Emden31 Oct · away
Pick: Weiche Flensburg 60% · missed
L
Werder Bremen II3–2Kickers Emden24 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen II 42% · hit
D
Kickers Emden2–2Phönix Lübeck17 Oct · home
Pick: Phönix Lübeck 52% · missed
D
Kickers Emden1–1Hannover 96 II29 Aug · home
Pick: Hannover 96 II 55% · missed

About this match

Hamburger SV II and Kickers Emden meet in Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Hamburger SV II win 38.0%, draw 20.3%, Kickers Emden win 41.7%. The pick is Kickers Emden win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.8%. Both teams to score: 65.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.