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Regionalliga - Nord Germany North - 18 2026

VfB Lübeck vs Eintracht Norderstedt

VfB Lübeck Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eintracht Norderstedt Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfB Lübeck win
VfB Lübeck winPick
46.8%
Draw
20.8%
Eintracht Norderstedt win
32.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.2%
No35.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.4%
Under 2.528.6%

How much we know

VfB Lübeck history63 matches
Eintracht Norderstedt history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why VfB Lübeck are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfB Lübeck are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,475. On rating alone VfB Lübeck would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.75 goals a game over 63 matches for VfB Lübeck, against 1.93 over 61 for Eintracht Norderstedt.

  • VfB Lübeck concede fewer

    VfB Lübeck concede 1.59 a game, Eintracht Norderstedt 1.92.

  • Eintracht Norderstedt games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of VfB Lübeck matches, against 69% for Eintracht Norderstedt. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VfB Lübeck
Eintracht Norderstedt@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.3
ELO
1475.0
63
ELO · Matches
61
1543.3
Current Team ELO
1475.0
1475.0
Current Opponent ELO
1543.3
68.29
Current ELO Difference
-68.29
0.60
Expected score
0.40
63
History Matches
61
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.67
Overperformance
49.10
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
1.20
Goals for per game
2.30
1.10
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
61
1.51
PPG
1.26
41.3%
Win rate
32.8%
27.0%
Draw rate
27.9%
31.7%
Loss rate
39.3%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
91.8%
58.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.9%
49.2%
Over 3.5 rate
57.4%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
28
1.59
PPG
1.07
43.8%
Win rate
25.0%
28.1%
Draw rate
32.1%
28.1%
Loss rate
42.9%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
67.9%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
32
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.75
Goals for per game
1.93
81.0%
Scoring rate
86.9%
63.5%
BTTS rate
70.5%
1.84
Goals for per game
1.93
90.6%
Scoring rate
92.9%
68.8%
BTTS rate
78.6%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.20
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
61
1.75
Goals Mean
1.93
1.39
Goals Std
1.68
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.9%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
50.8%
27.0%
Scored 3+ rate
24.6%
1.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.59
Goals against per game
1.92
81.0%
Conceding rate
82.0%
1.38
Goals against per game
2.07
78.1%
Conceding rate
85.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
61
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.92
1.42
Conceded Std
1.37
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.3%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.5%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.1%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.1%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
2.24
Goal Difference Std
2.36
1.42
Stability score
0.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
61
17
Lead Matches
22
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
59.1%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.68
21
Trailing Matches
18
42.9%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
90.83
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.58
4
Current Competition Matches
5
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.70
Portability PPG Std
0.48
2.10
Portability PPG Range
1.12
41.62
Portability Score
51.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO68.29
PPG0.25
GF-0.19
GA-0.33
PPG-0.50
PPG0.52
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score0.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate23.3%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate15.1%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.10
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.98
Portability Score-9.56
Rest days7.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO68.29
Current Opponent ELO-68.29
Current ELO Difference136.6
Expected score0.19
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VfB Lübeck

D
Kickers Emden1–1VfB Lübeck6 Nov · away
Pick: Kickers Emden 39% · missed
L
VfB Lübeck2–5Werder Bremen II31 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Lübeck 51% · missed
W
VfB Lübeck4–1St. Pauli II17 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Lübeck 48% · hit
W
SSV Jeddeloh1–2VfB Lübeck12 Oct · away
Pick: SSV Jeddeloh 45% · missed
L
VfB Lübeck2–3SV Drochtersen/Assel29 Aug · home
Pick: SV Drochtersen/Assel 42% · hit

Eintracht Norderstedt

L
Todesfelde4–2Eintracht Norderstedt1 Nov · away
Pick: Todesfelde 60% · hit
L
Hannover 96 II4–3Eintracht Norderstedt24 Oct · away
Pick: Hannover 96 II 63% · hit
W
Hamburger SV II0–2Eintracht Norderstedt30 Aug · away
Pick: Eintracht Norderstedt 43% · hit
L
Tus Dassendorf3–1Eintracht Norderstedt29 Aug · away
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

VfB Lübeck and Eintracht Norderstedt meet in Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: VfB Lübeck win 46.8%, draw 20.8%, Eintracht Norderstedt win 32.4%. The pick is VfB Lübeck win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.4%. Both teams to score: 64.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.