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Regionalliga - Nord Germany North - 18 2026

Weiche Flensburg vs Werder Bremen II

Weiche Flensburg Home · Elo 1,555
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Werder Bremen II Away · Elo 1,481
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Weiche Flensburg win
Weiche Flensburg winPick
52.5%
Draw
18.2%
Werder Bremen II win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.3%
No34.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.578.4%
Under 2.521.6%

How much we know

Weiche Flensburg history61 matches
Werder Bremen II history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.5%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Weiche Flensburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Weiche Flensburg are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,481. On rating alone Weiche Flensburg would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.92 goals a game over 61 matches for Weiche Flensburg, against 2.10 over 60 for Werder Bremen II.

  • Defences are close

    Weiche Flensburg concede 1.82 a game, Werder Bremen II 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of Weiche Flensburg matches, against 78% for Werder Bremen II. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Weiche Flensburg
Werder Bremen II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.3
ELO
1481.0
61
ELO · Matches
60
1555.3
Current Team ELO
1481.0
1481.0
Current Opponent ELO
1555.3
74.31
Current ELO Difference
-74.31
0.61
Expected score
0.39
61
History Matches
60
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.42
Overperformance
48.58
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.20
3.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.00
2.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.70
Goals against per game
2.60
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.81
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
60
1.38
PPG
1.30
37.7%
Win rate
33.3%
24.6%
Draw rate
30.0%
37.7%
Loss rate
36.7%
86.9%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
72.1%
Over 2.5 rate
78.3%
55.7%
Over 3.5 rate
61.7%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
1.47
PPG
1.23
40.0%
Win rate
29.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
35.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
35.5%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
77.4%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
64.5%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
2.10
82.0%
Scoring rate
86.7%
70.5%
BTTS rate
76.7%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.94
76.7%
Scoring rate
87.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
80.6%
3.40
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
61
History Matches
60
1.92
Goals Mean
2.10
1.51
Goals Std
1.76
82.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
54.1%
Scored 2+ rate
53.3%
31.1%
Scored 3+ rate
31.7%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.82
Goals against per game
2.00
83.6%
Conceding rate
85.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.13
83.3%
Conceding rate
87.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
60
1.82
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.41
Conceded Std
1.55
50.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.0%
27.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.7%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
60
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
2.21
Goal Difference Std
2.64
1.65
Stability score
0.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
60
15
Lead Matches
22
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.74
19
Trailing Matches
19
21.1%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
21.1%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.04
Rest days
86.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.75
32
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
25
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
2.60
PPG
0.25
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
5
Current Competition Matches
4
2.60
Current Competition PPG
0.25
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.81
Portability PPG Range
1.67
45.73
Portability Score
46.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO74.31
PPG0.08
GF-0.18
GA-0.18
PPG2.35
PPG0.24
PPG2.40
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate0.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score1.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate16.4%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG2.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.15
Portability Score-0.56
Rest days-3.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO74.31
Current Opponent ELO-74.31
Current ELO Difference148.6
Expected score0.21
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Weiche Flensburg

L
Hannover 96 II3–2Weiche Flensburg7 Nov · away
Pick: Hannover 96 II 44% · hit
D
Weiche Flensburg1–1Kickers Emden31 Oct · home
Pick: Weiche Flensburg 60% · missed
L
St. Pauli II3–0Weiche Flensburg25 Oct · away
Pick: Weiche Flensburg 52% · missed
W
Weiche Flensburg3–0SV Drochtersen/Assel16 Oct · home
Pick: Weiche Flensburg 52% · hit
W
Weiche Flensburg1–0Atlas Delmenhorst29 Aug · home
Pick: Weiche Flensburg 55% · hit

Werder Bremen II

L
Werder Bremen II0–1Bremer SV7 Nov · home
Pick: Bremer SV 38% · hit
W
VfB Lübeck2–5Werder Bremen II31 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Lübeck 51% · missed
L
Werder Bremen II1–4Hamburger SV II28 Oct · home
Pick: Werder Bremen II 51% · missed
W
Werder Bremen II3–2Kickers Emden24 Oct · home
Pick: Werder Bremen II 42% · hit
L
SSV Jeddeloh3–2Werder Bremen II17 Oct · away
Pick: SSV Jeddeloh 50% · hit

About this match

Weiche Flensburg and Werder Bremen II meet in Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Weiche Flensburg win 52.5%, draw 18.2%, Werder Bremen II win 29.3%. The pick is Weiche Flensburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.4%. Both teams to score: 65.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.