ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI

Hapoel Beer Sheva Home · Elo 1,666
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
OFI Away · Elo 1,511
Giulești, Bucharest Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva win
Hapoel Beer Sheva winPick
55.5%
Draw
19.5%
OFI win
25.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%

How much we know

Hapoel Beer Sheva history77 matches
OFI history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Hapoel Beer Sheva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hapoel Beer Sheva are rated 155 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,666 against 1,511. On rating alone Hapoel Beer Sheva would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Hapoel Beer Sheva score far more

    1.97 goals a game over 77 matches for Hapoel Beer Sheva, against 1.27 over 64 for OFI.

  • Hapoel Beer Sheva concede fewer

    Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 1.10 a game, OFI 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Hapoel Beer Sheva matches, against 58% for OFI. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hapoel Beer Sheva
OFI
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1666.0
ELO
1510.7
77
ELO · Matches
64
1666.0
Current Team ELO
1510.7
1510.7
Current Opponent ELO
1666.0
155.2
Current ELO Difference
-155.2
0.71
Expected score
0.29
77
History Matches
64
0.10
Residual Mean
0.00
58.11
Overperformance
50.22
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
64
1.96
PPG
1.25
58.4%
Win rate
35.9%
20.8%
Draw rate
17.2%
20.8%
Loss rate
46.9%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
58.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.8%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
35
2.11
PPG
1.00
62.2%
Win rate
25.7%
24.3%
Draw rate
22.9%
13.5%
Loss rate
51.4%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
37
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.97
Goals for per game
1.27
85.7%
Scoring rate
70.3%
55.8%
BTTS rate
45.3%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.06
89.2%
Scoring rate
68.6%
56.8%
BTTS rate
51.4%
77
History Matches
64
1.97
Goals Mean
1.27
1.45
Goals Std
1.08
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
59.7%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
27.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.10
Goals against per game
1.55
64.9%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.80
59.5%
Conceding rate
77.1%
77
History Matches
64
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.10
Conceded Std
1.30
29.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
64
0.88
Result entropy
0.93
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.98
11.99
Stability score
6.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
64
35
Lead Matches
24
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.79
8
Trailing Matches
20
37.5%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.01
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.14
Rest days
74.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
33
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
12
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.72
1.67
Portability PPG Range
2.22
50.42
Portability Score
41.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO155.2
PPG0.71
GF0.71
GA-0.44
PPG1.11
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate17.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate15.4%
Scored 2+ rate20.7%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score5.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate27.5%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.56
Portability Score9.31
Rest days-2.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.77
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.95
Current Team ELO155.2
Current Opponent ELO-155.2
Current ELO Difference310.5
Expected score0.42
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hapoel Beer Sheva

W
Maccabi Haifa2–5Hapoel Beer Sheva26 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva 47% · hit
L
Union St. Gilloise4–0Hapoel Beer Sheva22 Oct · away
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 46% · hit
L
AZ Alkmaar2–1Hapoel Beer Sheva15 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 49% · hit
W
Hapoel Ramat Gan1–2Hapoel Beer Sheva29 Aug · away
Pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

OFI

W
Panetolikos0–1OFI1 Nov · away
Pick: OFI 37% · hit
L
Larisa1–0OFI28 Oct · away
Pick: OFI 49% · missed
W
OFI2–1PAOK25 Oct · home
Pick: PAOK 51% · missed
L
OFI0–2Bayer Leverkusen22 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 51% · hit
L
Kalamata4–3OFI18 Oct · away
Pick: Kalamata 38% · hit

About this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva and OFI meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Giulești, Bucharest. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Hapoel Beer Sheva win 55.5%, draw 19.5%, OFI win 25.0%. The pick is Hapoel Beer Sheva win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.9%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.