Heider SV vs Holstein Kiel II
Match result probability Model pick: Holstein Kiel II win
Heider SV win
15.3%
Draw
14.8%
Holstein Kiel II winPick
69.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes65.3%
No34.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.571.8%
Under 2.528.2%
How much we know
Heider SV history49 matches
Holstein Kiel II history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Holstein Kiel II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.9%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Holstein Kiel II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Holstein Kiel II are rated 92 Elo points higher
Elo 1,604 against 1,512. On rating alone Holstein Kiel II would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
2.06 goals a game over 49 matches for Heider SV, against 2.29 over 52 for Holstein Kiel II.
-
Holstein Kiel II concede fewer
Heider SV concede 1.94 a game, Holstein Kiel II 1.17.
-
Heider SV games more often go over 2.5 goals
73% of Heider SV matches, against 63% for Holstein Kiel II. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holstein Kiel II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1512.1
ELO
1604.1
49
ELO · Matches
52
1512.1
Current Team ELO
1604.1
1604.1
Current Opponent ELO
1512.1
-92.02
Current ELO Difference
92.02
0.37
Expected score
0.63
49
History Matches
52
0.01
Residual Mean
0.11
50.93
Overperformance
58.01
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
3.20
3.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.30
1.50
Goals for per game
3.50
2.50
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.50
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
52
1.59
PPG
1.77
46.9%
Win rate
51.9%
18.4%
Draw rate
21.2%
34.7%
Loss rate
26.9%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
73.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.5%
65.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.2%
2.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.47
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
23
1.76
PPG
1.87
52.0%
Win rate
56.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
17.4%
28.0%
Loss rate
26.1%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
69.6%
68.0%
Over 3.5 rate
47.8%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.63
25
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.06
Goals for per game
2.29
85.7%
Scoring rate
84.6%
67.3%
BTTS rate
51.9%
2.08
Goals for per game
2.30
84.0%
Scoring rate
82.6%
68.0%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.40
Goals for per game
3.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
49
History Matches
52
2.06
Goals Mean
2.29
1.50
Goals Std
1.83
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
53.1%
Scored 2+ rate
55.8%
40.8%
Scored 3+ rate
42.3%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
2.30
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.94
Goals against per game
1.17
77.6%
Conceding rate
59.6%
1.72
Goals against per game
1.26
76.0%
Conceding rate
56.5%
3.40
Goals against per game
1.20
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
49
History Matches
52
1.94
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.65
Conceded Std
1.31
55.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
30.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
1.72
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
43.5%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
52
0.94
Result entropy
0.93
2.46
Goal Difference Std
2.47
5.92
Stability score
6.96
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
48
Eligible Matches
51
17
Lead Matches
26
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.92
13
Trailing Matches
6
23.1%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
1.16
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.29
Portability PPG Range
1.32
51.88
Portability Score
45.99
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-92.02
PPG-0.18
GF-0.23
GA0.77
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.11
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate1.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.77
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate22.4%
Conceded 3+ rate17.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.58
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score-1.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score5.89
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO-92.02
Current Opponent ELO92.02
Current ELO Difference-184.0
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Heider SV
L
Rapid Lubeck1–0Heider SV7 Nov · away
Pick: Rapid Lubeck 56% · hit D
Nordmark Satrup0–0Heider SV31 Oct · away
Pick: Nordmark Satrup 52% · missed W
Heider SV3–1Lübeck II24 Oct · home
Pick: Heider SV 61% · hit W
Eckernförder SV2–6Heider SV17 Oct · away
Pick: Eckernförder SV 43% · missed L
Oldenburger SV4–0Heider SV4 Oct · away
Pick: Oldenburger SV 50% · hit Holstein Kiel II
L
Holstein Kiel II3–5Kilia Kiel1 Nov · home
Pick: Holstein Kiel II 65% · missed W
Holstein Kiel II5–0Rotenhof18 Oct · home
Pick: Holstein Kiel II 80% · hit W
Nordmark Satrup1–3Holstein Kiel II29 Aug · away
Pick: Holstein Kiel II 61% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Heider SV and Holstein Kiel II meet in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Heider SV win 15.3%, draw 14.8%, Holstein Kiel II win 69.9%. The pick is Holstein Kiel II win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.8%. Both teams to score: 65.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.