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Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany Schleswig-Holstein - 17 2026

Union Neumünster vs Hohenwestedt

Union Neumünster Home · Elo 1,535
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hohenwestedt Away · Elo 1,456
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Union Neumünster win
Union Neumünster winPick
52.5%
Draw
19.0%
Hohenwestedt win
28.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.7%
No32.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.5%
Under 2.523.5%

How much we know

Union Neumünster history46 matches
Hohenwestedt history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.5%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Union Neumünster are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Union Neumünster are rated 79 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,456. On rating alone Union Neumünster would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Union Neumünster score more

    2.37 goals a game over 46 matches for Union Neumünster, against 1.70 over 47 for Hohenwestedt.

  • Union Neumünster concede fewer

    Union Neumünster concede 1.74 a game, Hohenwestedt 2.11.

  • Union Neumünster games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Union Neumünster matches, against 66% for Hohenwestedt. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union Neumünster
Hohenwestedt@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.5
ELO
1456.2
46
ELO · Matches
47
1535.5
Current Team ELO
1456.2
1456.2
Current Opponent ELO
1535.5
79.29
Current ELO Difference
-79.29
0.61
Expected score
0.39
46
History Matches
47
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.05
52.33
Overperformance
46.66
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
2.50
Goals for per game
1.90
2.30
Goals against per game
2.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
47
1.72
PPG
1.19
52.2%
Win rate
31.9%
15.2%
Draw rate
23.4%
32.6%
Loss rate
44.7%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.4%
78.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
65.2%
Over 3.5 rate
51.1%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
24
1.95
PPG
1.42
63.6%
Win rate
41.7%
4.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
31.8%
Loss rate
41.7%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
22
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.37
Goals for per game
1.70
84.8%
Scoring rate
89.4%
60.9%
BTTS rate
72.3%
2.32
Goals for per game
1.92
81.8%
Scoring rate
91.7%
45.5%
BTTS rate
70.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
47
2.37
Goals Mean
1.70
1.70
Goals Std
1.18
84.8%
Scored 1+ rate
89.4%
71.7%
Scored 2+ rate
46.8%
45.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
2.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.74
Goals against per game
2.11
76.1%
Conceding rate
83.0%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.92
63.6%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.80
Goals against per game
2.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
47
1.74
Conceded Mean
2.11
1.52
Conceded Std
1.52
47.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.6%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
38.3%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
47
0.90
Result entropy
0.97
2.62
Goal Difference Std
1.88
9.76
Stability score
3.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
47
19
Lead Matches
16
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.73
13
Trailing Matches
20
15.4%
Non-loss rate
35.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.99
Portability PPG Range
0.69
53.32
Portability Score
60.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO79.29
PPG0.53
GF0.67
GA-0.37
PPG0.60
PPG0.54
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate4.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.52
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate24.9%
Scored 3+ rate24.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.75
Stability score6.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate10.2%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-7.18
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.68
Current Team ELO79.29
Current Opponent ELO-79.29
Current ELO Difference158.6
Expected score0.22
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Union Neumünster

L
Kaltenkirchen1–0Union Neumünster31 Oct · away
Pick: Union Neumünster 40% · missed
W
Rapid Lubeck1–7Union Neumünster17 Oct · away
Pick: Rapid Lubeck 47% · missed
L
Union Neumünster1–4Kilia Kiel29 Aug · home
Pick: Kilia Kiel 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hohenwestedt

D
Hohenwestedt1–1Rotenhof7 Nov · home
Pick: Hohenwestedt 47% · missed
L
Hohenwestedt0–1TSB Flensburg31 Oct · home
Pick: Hohenwestedt 41% · missed
W
Oldenburger SV4–5Hohenwestedt24 Oct · away
Pick: Oldenburger SV 45% · missed
L
VfR Neumünster3–2Hohenwestedt18 Oct · away
Pick: VfR Neumünster 61% · hit
D
Hohenwestedt2–2Phönix L. II29 Aug · home
Pick: Hohenwestedt 44% · missed

About this match

Union Neumünster and Hohenwestedt meet in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Union Neumünster win 52.5%, draw 19.0%, Hohenwestedt win 28.5%. The pick is Union Neumünster win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.5%. Both teams to score: 67.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.