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Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany Schleswig-Holstein - 17 2026

Eckernförder SV vs Nordmark Satrup

Eckernförder SV Home · Elo 1,406
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nordmark Satrup Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nordmark Satrup win
Eckernförder SV win
28.5%
Draw
18.3%
Nordmark Satrup winPick
53.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.1%
No34.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.4%
Under 2.526.6%

How much we know

Eckernförder SV history16 matches
Nordmark Satrup history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Nordmark Satrup are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nordmark Satrup are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,406. On rating alone Nordmark Satrup would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Nordmark Satrup score more

    1.19 goals a game over 16 matches for Eckernförder SV, against 1.68 over 44 for Nordmark Satrup.

  • Nordmark Satrup concede fewer

    Eckernförder SV concede 2.81 a game, Nordmark Satrup 1.75.

  • Eckernförder SV games more often go over 2.5 goals

    81% of Eckernförder SV matches, against 66% for Nordmark Satrup. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eckernförder SV
Nordmark Satrup@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1406.2
ELO
1501.8
16
ELO · Matches
44
1406.2
Current Team ELO
1501.8
1501.8
Current Opponent ELO
1406.2
-95.57
Current ELO Difference
95.57
0.37
Expected score
0.63
16
History Matches
44
-0.27
Residual Mean
0.00
38.00
Overperformance
50.16
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.70
3.10
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
3.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
44
0.44
PPG
1.36
12.5%
Win rate
38.6%
6.3%
Draw rate
20.5%
81.3%
Loss rate
40.9%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
81.3%
Over 2.5 rate
65.9%
62.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.6%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
22
0.60
PPG
0.91
20.0%
Win rate
22.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
22.7%
80.0%
Loss rate
54.5%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
10
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.68
62.5%
Scoring rate
81.8%
62.5%
BTTS rate
56.8%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.55
60.0%
Scoring rate
77.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
16
History Matches
44
1.19
Goals Mean
1.68
1.29
Goals Std
1.36
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.7%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.5%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.81
Goals against per game
1.75
93.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.80
Goals against per game
2.27
100.0%
Conceding rate
86.4%
2.80
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
16
History Matches
44
2.81
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.38
Conceded Std
1.61
81.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
62.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.5%
2.80
Venue Conceded Mean
2.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
44
0.55
Result entropy
0.96
1.69
Goal Difference Std
2.42
45.21
Stability score
3.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
43
2
Lead Matches
15
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.87
10
Trailing Matches
15
0.0%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
8
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
7
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.24
Portability PPG Range
0.54
80.88
Portability Score
66.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-95.57
PPG-0.93
GF-0.49
GA1.06
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.31
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate19.3%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate17.3%
History Matches-28
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches-28
Conceded Mean1.06
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate35.8%
Conceded 3+ rate33.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches-28
Result entropy-0.41
Goal Difference Std-0.72
Stability score41.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches-27
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-27
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score14.37
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.58
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-95.57
Current Opponent ELO95.57
Current ELO Difference-191.1
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-28
Residual Mean-0.27
Overperformance-12.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eckernförder SV

W
Lübeck II1–2Eckernförder SV7 Nov · away
Pick: Lübeck II 43% · missed
W
Eckernförder SV2–0Oldenburger SV31 Oct · home
Pick: Oldenburger SV 54% · missed
D
Phönix L. II1–1Eckernförder SV24 Oct · away
Pick: Phönix L. II 64% · missed
L
Eckernförder SV2–6Heider SV17 Oct · home
Pick: Eckernförder SV 43% · missed
L
VfR Neumünster3–0Eckernförder SV30 Aug · away
Pick: VfR Neumünster 83% · hit

Nordmark Satrup

D
Nordmark Satrup1–1Phönix L. II7 Nov · home
Pick: Nordmark Satrup 51% · missed
D
Nordmark Satrup0–0Heider SV31 Oct · home
Pick: Nordmark Satrup 52% · missed
L
Nordmark Satrup1–3Holstein Kiel II29 Aug · home
Pick: Holstein Kiel II 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Eckernförder SV and Nordmark Satrup meet in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Eckernförder SV win 28.5%, draw 18.3%, Nordmark Satrup win 53.2%. The pick is Nordmark Satrup win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.4%. Both teams to score: 65.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.