Hereford vs Brackley Town
Match result probability Model pick: Brackley Town win
Hereford win
29.6%
Draw
27.5%
Brackley Town winPick
42.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.0%
No45.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%
How much we know
Hereford history82 matches
Brackley Town history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Brackley Town
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Brackley Town are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Hereford are rated 58 Elo points higher
Elo 1,509 against 1,450. On rating alone Hereford would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Hereford score more
1.48 goals a game over 82 matches for Hereford, against 1.28 over 87 for Brackley Town.
-
Defences are close
Hereford concede 1.50 a game, Brackley Town 1.40.
-
Hereford games more often go over 2.5 goals
61% of Hereford matches, against 47% for Brackley Town. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brackley Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1508.5
ELO
1450.1
82
ELO · Matches
87
1508.5
Current Team ELO
1450.1
1450.1
Current Opponent ELO
1508.5
58.47
Current ELO Difference
-58.47
0.58
Expected score
0.42
82
History Matches
87
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.03
50.27
Overperformance
47.85
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.10
1.30
Goals for per game
0.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals 90
82
Matches
87
1.37
PPG
1.33
37.8%
Win rate
36.8%
23.2%
Draw rate
23.0%
39.0%
Loss rate
40.2%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
30.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals 100
40
Matches
43
1.48
PPG
1.05
42.5%
Win rate
27.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.9%
37.5%
Loss rate
51.2%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
32.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
40
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.48
Goals for per game
1.28
78.0%
Scoring rate
70.1%
58.5%
BTTS rate
51.7%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.26
77.5%
Scoring rate
67.4%
60.0%
BTTS rate
58.1%
82
History Matches
87
1.48
Goals Mean
1.28
1.20
Goals Std
1.27
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.1%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
35.6%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
10.3%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
78.0%
Conceding rate
74.7%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.77
82.5%
Conceding rate
83.7%
82
History Matches
87
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.16
Conceded Std
1.23
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.1%
13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
1.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.9%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.9%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
82
History Matches
87
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.73
2.26
Stability score
2.41
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
82
Eligible Matches
87
20
Lead Matches
24
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
79.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.83
32
Trailing Matches
25
37.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
3.1%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.88
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
61
Normal Rest History Matches
67
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
12
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.91
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.58
Portability PPG Range
1.35
47.68
Portability Score
51.28
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
82
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO58.47
PPG0.03
GF0.20
GA0.10
PPG0.43
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-0.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate0.8%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate17.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-3.60
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.01
Current Team ELO58.47
Current Opponent ELO-58.47
Current ELO Difference116.9
Expected score0.17
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Hereford
W
Chorley1–2Hereford7 Nov · away
Pick: Hereford 41% · hit L
Hereford0–3King's Lynn Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Hereford 58% · missed L
Hereford0–1AFC Telford United27 Oct · home
Pick: Hereford 50% · missed W
Macclesfield1–2Hereford24 Oct · away
Pick: Macclesfield 42% · missed W
Southport0–1Hereford31 Aug · away
Pick: Southport 37% · missed Brackley Town
L
Brackley Town0–1Chester7 Nov · home
Pick: Chester 44% · hit W
Worksop Town0–1Brackley Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Worksop Town 44% · missed D
Spalding United2–2Brackley Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Spalding United 45% · missed L
Brackley Town0–1Radcliffe24 Oct · home
Pick: Brackley Town 49% · missed L
Hednesford Town3–2Brackley Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Hednesford Town 40% · hit About this match
Hereford and Brackley Town meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Edgar Street, Hereford. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Hereford win 29.6%, draw 27.5%, Brackley Town win 42.9%. The pick is Brackley Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.