ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niederrhein Germany Niederrhein - 12 2026

Holzheimer SG vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II

Holzheimer SG Home · Elo 1,452
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fortuna Düsseldorf II Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf II win
Holzheimer SG win
22.6%
Draw
16.5%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II winPick
60.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.2%
No38.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.3%
Under 2.531.7%

How much we know

Holzheimer SG history35 matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf II history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Fortuna Düsseldorf II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf II are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,452. On rating alone Fortuna Düsseldorf II would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf II score more

    1.40 goals a game over 35 matches for Holzheimer SG, against 1.67 over 57 for Fortuna Düsseldorf II.

  • Fortuna Düsseldorf II concede fewer

    Holzheimer SG concede 2.00 a game, Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Holzheimer SG matches, against 58% for Fortuna Düsseldorf II. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Holzheimer SG
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.4
ELO
1504.8
35
ELO · Matches
57
1452.4
Current Team ELO
1504.8
1504.8
Current Opponent ELO
1452.4
-52.32
Current ELO Difference
52.32
0.43
Expected score
0.57
35
History Matches
57
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
45.54
Overperformance
50.71
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
2.60
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.60
0.90
Goals for per game
2.10
3.00
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.84
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
57
1.06
PPG
1.37
25.7%
Win rate
38.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
21.1%
45.7%
Loss rate
40.4%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.6%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
27
0.94
PPG
1.33
17.6%
Win rate
37.0%
41.2%
Draw rate
22.2%
41.2%
Loss rate
40.7%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
51.9%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
17
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.67
68.6%
Scoring rate
70.2%
62.9%
BTTS rate
54.4%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.74
58.8%
Scoring rate
81.5%
58.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
35
History Matches
57
1.40
Goals Mean
1.67
1.34
Goals Std
1.38
68.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.2%
37.1%
Scored 2+ rate
56.1%
22.9%
Scored 3+ rate
28.1%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.58
82.9%
Conceding rate
77.2%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.78
82.4%
Conceding rate
81.5%
3.50
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
35
History Matches
57
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.49
Conceded Std
1.24
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.3%
1.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
57
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.84
3.06
Stability score
3.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
56
4
Lead Matches
20
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.75
11
Trailing Matches
14
36.4%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.23
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
34
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
2
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.74
—
Portability PPG Range
1.82
—
Portability Score
40.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-52.32
PPG-0.31
GF-0.27
GA0.42
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.39
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-22
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate22.7%
History Matches-22
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-22
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate12.6%
Conceded 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.56
History Matches-22
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches-21
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate30.0%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate22.1%
Trailing Win Rate1.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-21
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-5.50
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days-8.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Current Team ELO-52.32
Current Opponent ELO52.32
Current ELO Difference-104.6
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-22
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Holzheimer SG

L
SSVg Velbert4–1Holzheimer SG25 Oct · away
Pick: SSVg Velbert 66% · hit
L
SC St. Tönis1–0Holzheimer SG18 Oct · away
Pick: SC St. Tönis 69% · hit
W
Büderich2–3Holzheimer SG4 Oct · away
Pick: Büderich 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

D
Fortuna Düsseldorf II1–1SC St. Tönis23 Oct · home
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf II 60% · missed
W
BW Dingden0–2Fortuna Düsseldorf II16 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf II 57% · hit
L
Schonnebeck2–1Fortuna Düsseldorf II4 Oct · away
Pick: Schonnebeck 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Holzheimer SG and Fortuna Düsseldorf II meet in Oberliga - Niederrhein on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Holzheimer SG win 22.6%, draw 16.5%, Fortuna Düsseldorf II win 60.9%. The pick is Fortuna Düsseldorf II win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.3%. Both teams to score: 61.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.