Horsham vs Torquay
Match result probability Model pick: Torquay win
Horsham win
33.2%
Draw
25.8%
Torquay winPick
41.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.9%
No46.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%
How much we know
Horsham history79 matches
Torquay history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Torquay
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Torquay are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Torquay are rated 54 Elo points higher
Elo 1,585 against 1,531. On rating alone Torquay would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Torquay score more
1.53 goals a game over 79 matches for Horsham, against 1.79 over 81 for Torquay.
-
Horsham concede fewer
Horsham concede 1.05 a game, Torquay 1.27.
-
Torquay games more often go over 2.5 goals
49% of Horsham matches, against 63% for Torquay. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Torquay@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1530.5
ELO
1584.6
79
ELO · Matches
81
1530.5
Current Team ELO
1584.6
1584.6
Current Opponent ELO
1530.5
-54.11
Current ELO Difference
54.11
0.42
Expected score
0.58
79
History Matches
81
0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
51.63
Overperformance
54.29
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.80
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals 90
79
Matches
81
1.67
PPG
1.75
48.1%
Win rate
51.9%
22.8%
Draw rate
19.8%
29.1%
Loss rate
28.4%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.0%
49.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
16.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.3%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals 100
41
Matches
39
1.78
PPG
1.62
51.2%
Win rate
48.7%
24.4%
Draw rate
15.4%
24.4%
Loss rate
35.9%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
41
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.53
Goals for per game
1.79
78.5%
Scoring rate
80.2%
50.6%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.56
85.4%
Scoring rate
76.9%
48.8%
BTTS rate
59.0%
79
History Matches
81
1.53
Goals Mean
1.79
1.28
Goals Std
1.43
78.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.2%
45.6%
Scored 2+ rate
54.3%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.9%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.05
Goals against per game
1.27
65.8%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.28
56.1%
Conceding rate
79.5%
79
History Matches
81
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.27
0.95
Conceded Std
1.11
31.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.6%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.8%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.8%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
79
History Matches
81
0.95
Result entropy
0.93
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.97
4.58
Stability score
7.30
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
78
Eligible Matches
81
34
Lead Matches
31
73.5%
Lead Win Rate
80.6%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.85
17
Trailing Matches
21
41.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.60
70
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
5
Long Rest History Matches
9
2.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.18
Portability PPG Range
1.00
50.73
Portability Score
59.59
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
79
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-54.11
PPG-0.08
GF-0.26
GA-0.22
PPG0.17
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate23.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate10.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score-2.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate7.8%
Trailing Win Rate8.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-8.86
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.60
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.71
Current Team ELO-54.11
Current Opponent ELO54.11
Current ELO Difference-108.2
Expected score-0.15
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Horsham
L
Horsham2–3AFC Totton7 Nov · home
Pick: Horsham 49% · missed W
Farnborough0–5Horsham31 Oct · away
Pick: Horsham 44% · hit D
Maidenhead1–1Horsham27 Oct · away
Pick: Maidenhead 36% · missed W
Horsham1–0Walton & Hersham24 Oct · home
Pick: Horsham 55% · hit D
Ebbsfleet United2–2Horsham20 Oct · away
Pick: Horsham 41% · missed Torquay
W
Walton & Hersham0–3Torquay31 Oct · away
Pick: Torquay 41% · hit L
AFC Totton1–0Torquay27 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Totton 38% · hit D
Torquay1–1Maidstone Utd24 Oct · home
Pick: Maidstone Utd 40% · missed L
Torquay0–1Oxford City17 Oct · home
Pick: Torquay 44% · missed L
Farnham Town2–0Torquay31 Aug · away
Pick: Torquay 38% · missed About this match
Horsham and Torquay meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium, Horsham. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Horsham win 33.2%, draw 25.8%, Torquay win 41.0%. The pick is Torquay win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.