Inter Moengotapoe vs Robin Hood
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Inter Moengotapoe win
24.4%
Draw Result
22.4%
Robin Hood winPick
53.2%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickRobin Hood win · 53.2%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 22.4%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 63.6%
What happenedOver · 6 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 57.2%
What happenedYes · 3–3
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
22%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 4.5
on average A pick at 53% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes57.2%
No42.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.6%
Under 2.536.4%
How much we know
Inter Moengotapoe history23 matches
Robin Hood history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Kickoff7 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full time: 3–3Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Robin Hood are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Robin Hood are rated 97 Elo points higher
Elo 1,630 against 1,532. On rating alone Robin Hood would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Robin Hood score more
1.96 goals a game over 23 matches for Inter Moengotapoe, against 2.38 over 29 for Robin Hood.
-
Robin Hood concede fewer
Inter Moengotapoe concede 1.43 a game, Robin Hood 0.66.
-
Inter Moengotapoe games more often go over 2.5 goals
70% of Inter Moengotapoe matches, against 55% for Robin Hood. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 31 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Robin Hood@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1532.3
ELO
1629.8
23
ELO · Matches
29
1532.3
Current Team ELO
1629.8
1629.8
Current Opponent ELO
1532.3
-97.43
Current ELO Difference
97.43
0.36
Expected score
0.64
23
History Matches
29
0.07
Residual Mean
0.21
53.49
Overperformance
62.15
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.30
1.80
Goals for per game
2.60
1.90
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.36
Overall performance9 signals 90
23
Matches
29
1.70
PPG
2.24
47.8%
Win rate
65.5%
26.1%
Draw rate
27.6%
26.1%
Loss rate
6.9%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
47.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals 100
11
Matches
17
1.73
PPG
2.18
54.5%
Win rate
64.7%
9.1%
Draw rate
23.5%
36.4%
Loss rate
11.8%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
11
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.96
Goals for per game
2.38
78.3%
Scoring rate
79.3%
69.6%
BTTS rate
41.4%
1.91
Goals for per game
2.18
81.8%
Scoring rate
70.6%
63.6%
BTTS rate
29.4%
23
History Matches
29
1.96
Goals Mean
2.38
1.52
Goals Std
2.25
78.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.3%
52.2%
Scored 2+ rate
65.5%
39.1%
Scored 3+ rate
31.0%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
2.18
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.43
Goals against per game
0.66
78.3%
Conceding rate
44.8%
1.55
Goals against per game
0.47
72.7%
Conceding rate
35.3%
23
History Matches
29
1.43
Conceded Mean
0.66
1.10
Conceded Std
0.84
43.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.2%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.4%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
0.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
55.2%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
64.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
55.2%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
64.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
55.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
23
History Matches
29
0.96
Result entropy
0.74
1.66
Goal Difference Std
2.33
4.08
Stability score
25.66
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
19
Eligible Matches
20
7
Lead Matches
10
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
4
28.6%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
1.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
166.9
Rest days
99.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
7
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.11
14
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.35
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.03
Portability PPG Range
1.17
96.77
Portability Score
52.81
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
23
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-97.43
PPG-0.55
GF-0.42
GA0.78
PPG-0.45
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.37
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.73
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.78
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate26.2%
Conceded 3+ rate13.9%
Venue Conceded Mean1.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.22
Goal Difference Std-0.67
Stability score-21.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.60
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate28.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-1.13
Portability Score43.97
Rest days67.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.11
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-97.43
Current Opponent ELO97.43
Current ELO Difference-194.9
Expected score-0.27
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-8.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Inter Moengotapoe
W
Inter Moengotapoe5–0PVV31 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Moengotapoe 53% · hit W
Coronie Boys0–3Inter Moengotapoe17 Oct · away
Pick: Coronie Boys 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Robin Hood
D
Notch2–2Robin Hood31 Oct · away
Pick: Robin Hood 62% · missed L
Leo Victor2–0Robin Hood25 Oct · away
Pick: Robin Hood 51% · missed W
Robin Hood3–0Broki18 Oct · home
Pick: Robin Hood 51% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Inter Moengotapoe and Robin Hood finished 3–3 in Eerste Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC, before kickoff: Inter Moengotapoe win 24.4%, draw 22.4%, Robin Hood win 53.2%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.